Cardinal Health, Inc. (NYSE:CAH) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

That’s a full year view of how to think about it. Now as we think about the cadence, though, we are being clear that the profit will be back-half weighted during the year just like it was in fiscal year ’23. Our view is that Q1 will have similar core performance with Q4 with sequential performance thereafter. Q1 is the seasonal low point for the Med Products and Distribution business due to both the timing of volume as well as our cost recognition. That’s an important point. And similarly, we do expect that continued acceleration of inflation mitigation over the course of the year as well. So that will push the profit from a weighting perspective in the back half. And then don’t forget that while we were very pleased to call out a sign of change in trend in Cardinal Health brand, we’re also clear at Investor Day that the Cardinal Health brand volume growth is largely back-half weighted.

Hope that helps. Next question, please.

Operator: The next question comes from Kevin Caliendo of UBS.

Kevin Caliendo: Thanks. Maybe to follow-up on that a little bit. So if we’re thinking about $82 million , the baseline is really $60 million, the first quarter is likely because of the $20 million in seasonals’ and one-timers. The first quarter is likely to be down sequentially and then grow off that base to get to the $400 million. I just want to make sure that, that’s what you’re committing to or commenting on. And then secondly, or incrementally, the new products or the Cardinal brand products, is that — the increase in the back half of the year? Is that because of new product launches or manufacturing capabilities? Is it contractually like new contracts coming on that are higher weighted? Can you just sort of explain the dynamics of the Cardinal brand products as well?

Aaron Alt: Well, I’ll start, and then toss it over to Jason. You are correct in that the way we’re thinking about this is that core performance Q4 to Q1 will be roughly in line. And if you interpret what I was just saying in response to an earlier question, we do have some negative seasonality in Q1 versus Q4. So that’s why the jumping off point is core performance versus the Q4 results. Jason?

Jason Hollar: Yes. I’d think about the Cardinal brand volume growth being back half-loaded through a couple of different lenses. First of all, we do think that the underlying utilization will be — for the market will continue to be relatively consistent. So we do see same-store sales growth out there, and we anticipate that, that will continue. And within our performance within that, we highlighted that our comparison point to the prior year is becoming easier as we did lose some business over the last 18 months or so that we now are lapping and our five-point plan is working. Our five-point plan to improve — that includes improving the customer experience and importantly, that supply chain health. We’re seeing strong progress as it relates to service levels, CLI scores that gave us very good customer retention in the quarter, net new wins that were positive in the quarter.

That gives us the foundation that — that gives us confidence that we’ll grow with the underlying market, especially as we continue to lap that prior year impact, which we think will be more impactful in the second half of the year. So all the leading indicators are going as anticipated and consistent with how we laid it out at the Investor Day and gives us the visibility and the confidence that we’ll be able to participate in that market growth that we anticipate that will be there over the course of this next year. Next question, please.