Canadian Solar Inc. (NASDAQ:CSIQ) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Brian Lee: Hey, guys, how’s it going? Thanks for taking the questions. Maybe a few follow-ups to Phil’s questions around guidance. Just trying to triangulate here some of the moving pieces for Q4. So maybe if you could help us out? Just the 14% to 16% gross margin guidance, what does that embed for CSI Solar? You know, is it up, flat, down? And is your base of reference reported 16.6% or is it the adjusted 18.5%? Like, are there other inventory write-downs you’re anticipating for Q4 in CSI Solar? So, on maybe just, you know, what’s the gross margin direction or, you know, range you’d expect for that segment in Q4?

Shawn Qu: Hi, Brian. Good to hear you again. Now, actually, I would like to introduce a new person. Well, actually, he’s not new. He has been with us for many years. Kah Locke, our financial controller. Now, Kah Locke, do you want to shed light?

Kah Locke: Yeah. So, the outlook will be driven primarily by CSI Solar. So, that is the basis for our, you know, present outlook. You know, in terms of, you know, the range of guidance, you know, that, you know, just, you know, reflect the, you know, sensitivity we have towards the, you know, market right now in terms of the — you know, the price and, you know, our inventory level, et cetera.

Brian Lee: Okay, fair enough. Maybe asking it a different way, it sounds like you’re inferring that, you know, Q4 is going to be largely driven by CSI Solar. And so, Recurrent, you know, was pretty light revenues in Q3. If we presume Recurrent doesn’t grow significantly in Q4, I guess, the math would just imply that ASPs, which were like low $0.20 per watt this quarter reported, would be like $0.17 or $0.18 per watt in Q4, or do we — are we wrong in assuming that Recurrent is not growing much in Q4? Just trying to triangulate the pricing, I guess, because I have a follow-up question around the implications for 2024 guidance.

Kah Locke: Your estimation, you know, is in a ballpark. You know, Recurrent is not growing much, you know, for this next quarter.

Shawn Qu: Now, I want to explain in a different way. Recurrent is shifting from develop and flip to develop and hold project. So, Recurrent is growing, but they are not selling project. We think we have been leaving too much money on the table by selling the project just after or before COD. We think our projects are very valuable, and connection points are also very valuable and you’re not going to see this kind of PPA or this kind of connection point anymore. So, we think that by holding those projects, though, the value will grow. So I just want to correct that Recurrent is growing, because the pipeline is growing.

Brian Lee: Okay. Thank you, Shawn. No, that makes a lot of sense, and I have a follow-up question on that. But maybe just quickly to round out this line of questioning, if you’re kind of, let’s call it, high-teens, ASP per watt, exiting 2023, what’s sort of your big picture view around, you know, ’24, given we’re still going through some destocking and it doesn’t sound like you’re going to have meaningful shipment growth maybe until the back half of the year? That’s what you seem to infer to an earlier question. So, ASPs flat, you know, down modestly, like, what kind of — what’s your big picture view off of these levels for maybe the balance of ’24?

Shawn Qu: Hi, Brian. As you know, we don’t provide 2024 margin or ASP guidance yet. So, why don’t we wait till March or May conference call, and let’s see whether we can share some the numbers at that time?

Brian Lee: Okay, understood. Last one for me, Shawn, and I’ll pass it on. I did want to ask you kind of big picture strategy question, you know, as Recurrent is going to go into more of a — you know, it almost sounds like quasi-IPP model. Wondering, can you give us a sense of, you know, what your average holding period, target holding period would sort of be like? And the reason I ask is, you know, you’re not generating free cash flow this year, and if CapEx is up, you know, more next year, you know, presumably, you may be in a tight free cash flow position next year as well. And you’re not selling these assets for upfront margin. So, does it start to strain your cash flow or balance sheet picture in terms of holding these projects longer? Just kind of get a sense of the puts and takes and how you balance that? Thank you.

Shawn Qu: Hi, Huifeng, do you — can you answer this question?

Huifeng Chang: Yeah, sure. Hi, Brian. Our leverage on the Recurrent Energy side has increased over the year, because we are transitioning into a build-and-hold model. But meanwhile, when we indicate our strategy of holding assets, we have been approached by many financial partners. So, we have options going forward, equity, partnership, all kinds of form to grow our assets and also be a manager for those assets. So, the future cash flow will be predictable, stable. So we are really in the transitional period. And that explains why the revenue number over the past few quarters was lower for Recurrent Energy. But going forward, you will see the cadence will change, we’ll accelerate the growth, owning more assets and owning more cash flows. Thank you.

Shawn Qu: Hey, Ismael, do you want to add some color?