Canadian National Railway Company (NYSE:CNI) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Operator: Our next question comes from Ravi Shanker from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Ravi Shanker: Great. Hi good afternoon, everybody. Ed, congratulations and good luck with your retirement and congrats to the new incoming team as well. Maybe one kind of parting question for you, kind of as you joined the team, was this transition kind of timing, what you had planned when you joined? Or is it something that you brought forward just given some of the traction that you’ve had with implementing the plan?

Ed Harris: Yes. When I came on board, don’t forget I consulted here for quite a few months before I came on board and our evaluation of both Derek and Pat was almost immediate. Tracy and I were in agreement and then a lockstep with what the future of this operating department was going to look like. And both of these individuals have stepped up to the plate. Quite frankly, they’ve been running the show for the last couple of months, just getting ready. And I’m extremely, extremely proud of what they’ve been able to do. And if there’s a testament to their crowns, our third quarter was tough, as I said in my speech, I mean, it was rough operating out there. And our metrics were only off a small percentage and car velocity, train speed, cycles.

I mean we were doing everything right. And just to add on to what Doug just talked about between the carriers, just think of what this industry can do. If we take a day out of the cycle, all carriers do that. We get the traffic off the trucks. And that’s what it’s about. So, thanks for the nice comments. I appreciate it. I missed all of you. Maybe but they – it’s been a lot of fun for me and I’m enjoying every minute over. Thanks.

Doug MacDonald: I don’t know who I’ll tease and…

Ravi Shanker: Great. Thanks for that, Ed. And then maybe as a follow-up, Tracy, can you share what the initial success has been like selling your Falcon service to your customers? Obviously, your peer has a bit of a speed advantage still, but kind of what are your customers sitting here in terms of their preference for speed versus value or kind of what they’re looking for from that intermodal service?

Tracy Robinson: I would tell you that whether it’s that intermodal service or any service, table stakes is the consistency of the service that we provide. In the case of going after the truck traffic, like the Falcon service does, we know that means we also have to be fast. And I’m really impressed with the way the three organizations are working together to create a service and continually challenged to where we can get time out. And you’ve seen that happen. And then to – that’s one thing, but to deliver it consistently every day is another thing completely. And we’re doing that. And so as Doug said, this is a proof of concept, a model that we’ve got to prove to our customers, and it’s going to grow over time. We expect it to start small, which it is, and it will grow over time, and Doug I think we’ve said that we think this is a train a day both ways, ultimately, is that.

Doug MacDonald: No. Tracy to answer it. That’s the market share that we see out there, and it’s going to take a while to get there, and we’re going to make some progress. Like I said in my remarks, we are lucky enough to see STG join up on the service, and they started shipping their first load a couple of weeks ago. It’s our first real new, I’ll say, a third-party person that’s come on, and that’s a great relative forward to more.

Ravi Shanker: Very helpful. Thank you.

Operator: [Operator Instructions] Thank you. Our next question comes from Scott Group from Wolfe Research. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Scott Group: Hi, thanks, afternoon guys. And best of luck to Ed. So just Lane, the CAD 0.20 of headwinds in Q3 from fuel and external disruptions, should we just assume that, that those entirely go away, and that’s basically the bridge to your full year guide? And then as I think about next year, where you stand today? Do you think the long-term guide of 10% to 15% earnings growth is achievable next year?

Ed Harris: Thanks, Scott. I can answer the first part of your question, and then I’ll turn it over to Tracy for the second part. So you’re right. So when you look at the fuel surcharge headwind that we had in the quarter, it’s CAD 0.20 year-over-year. It’s CAD 0.10 this year. And if you remember, Scott, last year, we had a favorable fuel surcharge of CAD 0.10. So year-over-year, it’s CAD 0.20. And then there’s another CAD 0.10 of year-over-year disruptions that we quantified for you, so that’s what we had to go through in the quarter. And despite all of this, we delivered a 62 OR, which we’re quite proud and pleased about it. And then I’ll turn it over to you, Tracy, for next year.

Tracy Robinson: Sure. As far as the guidance that we gave at Investor Day on the CAGR of 10% to 15% EPS, we are sticking to that. We see that. So without doubt this railroad is running very well, continues to do so through all the shocks that has gone through this year, a testament to the team, I’m impressed every day. We laid out a growth plan for you. Now that was based on kind of this presumption of what is uncalled the supportive economy. We haven’t seen that much this year, but we are starting to see it come back. And that growth plan was a combination of two things. It was a piece of growth that is we’re going to capitalize on as the economy is coming from the strength of the economy. And then there’s some very specific customer initiatives that we’re working through.

That, that list is growing that we’re progressing without – they’re not tied to the strength of the economy. And those are coming on plan or in some cases, does is bringing them in ahead of plan as is the case for the printer corridor. So we think that this plan stands. And the risk to it would be that underlying strength in the economy, but we’re feeling pretty good about it as we sit here today.

Scott Group: Thank you.

Operator: Our next question comes from David Vernon from Bernstein. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

David Vernon: Hi guys, thanks. So Tracy, I just want to push on that a little bit. I mean, obviously, we’re coming in a little bit weaker than we might have a thought for 2023. As you think about that three-year envelope of 10% to 15% with some of the growth initiatives starting to pay off, should we maybe be doing a little bit better than the lower end of the range? Or how should we be thinking about the contouring of that 10% to 15% over the three years? Is it more back-end loaded, middle loaded, frontloaded?

Tracy Robinson: I think it is going to shift as far as in its timing. And we’re feeling pretty positive about the specific customer initiatives. What remains to be seen is exactly what the pace of the strength of the economy returning. So we’ll give you a little bit more color on that in January exactly what we’re seeing. But right now, we’re feeling good about our guidance.

David Vernon: And then just one, maybe just real quickly the CapEx side of that, there was a lot of concern, I think, when you had your Investor Day around the level of spend. Are you thinking about regulating that spend still in line with the volume anticipation?