Can Apple Inc. (AAPL) Become a Dividend Growth Stock?

Currently, almost 2/3 rds of revenues are derived from sales of iPhones, while 10% of revenues are derived from the sale of iPads. The smartphone and the tablet were product categories that existed before, but Apple essentially created and invigorated with its product launches. Sales of Macs accounted for 11% of revenues and the rest is from services and other hardware.

I do not know if iPhone/iPad next iWhatever will keep selling. Will people keep upgrading every few years, and pay a premium for features that are available elsewhere? This is an issue to think about, because products that are not as hot, have a steep declining curve of sales. I came to this idea after observing sales of iPod’s over the years. It is true that iPod sales were cannibalized by the iPhone. However, if iPhone or iPad sales are affected by an external threat, we may see a decline in sales in corresponding proportions. If a product that accounts for 2/3rds of revenues is not so hot anymore, the company may have some problems at hand, especially if it fails to energize its consumers with new offerings, such as iWatches for example.

I am wondering if we are seeing a similar issue with iPad sales today:

So far, sales of iPhones have been going strong. However, according to this website, this year could be the first drop in sales ever.

It was the rage with PC’s, where corporations upgrade every 3 – 5 years or so, which resulted in recurring revenues.. However. now tablets are eating PC’s lunch.  And honestly, is the iPad/iPhone something that is much different compared to say Samsung/anything that is Android? Everyone is trying to create an ecosystem, but then if you have changes in technology, would that ecosystem survive?

I am also looking at Blackberry, which generated $6.24 in EPS for year ended Feb 2011. The company also had spent a couple billion buying back stock at a P/E below 10. Remember all those managers that were addicted to their “crackberries”a few years ago? What are they using now to check work email? The steep decline in sales for Blackberries between 2007 – 2013 is just something that gives me a pause, before going for Apple.