British American Tobacco p.l.c. (NYSE:BTI) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Adjusted profit from operations in APMEA was up 7%, driven by strong pricing and continued efficiency gains. In the U.S., total revenue was down more than 4%, driven by continued macro-economic pressures and the impact of illicit single-use vapes. Despite this, Vuse extended its value leadership of tracked channels adding 470 basis points to reach 45.6%, with revenue up 14%. In Modern Oral, Velo revenue declined driven by lower volume. Adjusted profit from operations was marginally higher, up 0.4%, with our operating margin expanding by 280 basis points as Vuse profitability and efficiency gains offset Combustibles headwinds. U.S. Combustible industry volume was down 7.5%, or 8.6% on a sales-to-retail basis, excluding inventory movements. Beyond market secular decline, industry volume was mostly impacted by a combination of macro-economic headwinds and the growth of illicit single-use vapes.

On top of the industry contributors, our volume performance was impacted by lower volume share, as a result of our more premium skewed portfolio, and the California flavour ban. As a result, our Combustible volumes declined 11.3% in the U.S. more in line with industry decline if you exclude the deep discount segment where we do not participate. Taking a step back to look at the broader U.S. context, while U.S. consumers faced strong macro-economic headwinds through 2022 and 2023, we are starting to see some very early signs of recovery with gas prices stabilizing and the gap between wage growth and inflation narrowing. However, consumer confidence is recovering more slowly and it is still significantly below pre-COVID levels as consumers continue to be impacted by the cumulative effect of inflation, and higher interest rates on elevated levels of debt resulting in lower discretionary income.

Given this macro environment, the premium segment has remained under pressure through 2023. As Tadeu highlighted, our commercial plans are working and we are starting to deliver volume and value share recovery in the Premium segment, driven by Newport and Natural American Spirit. In addition, Lucky Strike continues to perform well in the value segment. As a result, our volume share of total U.S. market is starting to stabilize. While returning our U.S. Combustible business to consistent value growth will take time, we are making progress and we will continue to implement our plans carefully and thoroughly in 2024. It is important to remember that, overall, elasticities remain stable compared with pre-COVID levels at minus 0.4 and affordability remains high.

With our multi-category strategy and strong portfolio of brands, we are well-positioned to benefit from macro-economic improvement, and a recovery in legal Vapour market once there is effective enforcement against illicit products. As announced at our trading Update in December, we have taken a non-cash impairment charge mainly relating to our acquired U.S. brands. Following the completion of our detailed year-end finalization process and adjusting for FX movements, the total charge recognized is £27.3 billion. This recognizes the current macro-economic pressures impacting the U.S. Combustibles industry and change in consumption patterns post COVID, combined with the growth of illicit single-use Vapour products and uncertainty around the potential menthol ban.

This approach is also consistent with our vision to build a smokeless world. Moving forward, our Combustibles brands will be amortized over a maximum of 30 years. As a result, our annual non-cash amortization will increase by around £1.4 billion from 2024, which will be treated as an adjusting item in line with our accounting policies. Our acquired U.S. brands represent most of the Group brands and trademarks on our balance sheet and, as such, we do not anticipate similar Combustible brand value revisions moving forward. Importantly, these charges have no impact on our de-leverage, or our dividend and capital allocation flexibility. Returning to Group performance, operating margin expanded strongly, up 60 basis points, while also absorbing increased inflationary pressures and a 2.5% transactional FX headwind on profit.

This was supported by improving new category profitability and additional efficiency savings. Turning now to EPS, we delivered constant currency adjusted diluted EPS growth of 4% and 5.2% on an organic basis. This reflects our resilient operating performance, continued strong ITC delivery, and a lower number of shares. These were partly offset by increased net finance costs. The underlying tax rate was 24.5%, and with existing tax rates, we expect a rate of around 25% in 2024. Operating cash conversion was strong at 100%, reflecting our continued focus on cash delivery. As in 2023, we anticipate gross capital expenditure for 2024 to be below adjusted depreciation and amortization at around £550 million, and net finance costs of around £1.9 billion.

We continued to reduce leverage towards our target, and have a manageable maturity profile with 98% of our net debt fixed, average maturity of just over 10 years, and close currency matching. Looking forward, we are making targeted investment choices to drive our medium-term sustainable growth algorithm. Together with continued macro-economic pressures in the U.S., these investments will impact our 2024 delivery. As a result, we continue to expect to deliver low-single digit organic revenue and adjusted profit from operations growth including a 2% transactional FX headwind. With our performance second half weighted for both revenue and profit, mostly driven by the continued impact of macro pressure and illicit single-use vapes in the U.S. Continued investment in our U.S. commercial plans mainly weighted to the first half and the phasing of investment in AME and APMEA.