British American Tobacco p.l.c. (NYSE:BTI) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Javed Iqbal: Thank you, Tadeu, and good morning, everyone. Our results, demonstrate the resilience of our business. We delivered organic revenue growth of 3.1% with New Category revenue up 21%, and Combustibles price mix of 6%. Adjusted profit from operations was up 3.1%, with operating margin up 60 basis points, driven by a strong improvement in New Category contribution, and our continuous focus on efficiencies. Adjusted diluted EPS grew by 4%, or 1.1% on a current currency basis. On an organic basis, excluding Russia and Belarus from both periods, adjusted profit from operations was up 3.9% and adjusted diluted EPS was up 5.2%. These results were delivered despite the absorption of a 2.5% transactional FX headwind. We continue to drive strong organic New Category revenue growth.

This performance clearly reflects the strength of our multi-category portfolio, driven by Vuse and Velo. As a result, we continue to transform rapidly, with smokeless already reaching over 30% of our revenue in 24 markets. This represents nearly one-third of the 76 markets where we are in currently present in New Categories. And our transformation is even more advanced in many markets. Smokeless now represents 16.5% of Group revenue, up 1.7 percentage points from 2022. Excluding our U.S. Combustibles business, smokeless now represents more than a quarter of Group revenue. I will now share more details on our key category drivers, market shares are available in the appendix. In Vapour, we extended our value share leadership with Vuse to 36.1% in tracked channels in the key Vapour markets.

We continue to make good progress on driving profitability with Vapour now having a positive contribution in four of the five key markets. The fundamentals of the Vapour category as a reduced-risk alternative for adult smokers are strongly positive. The total number of Vapour consumers is accelerating and Vapour is the largest contributor to active New Category usage driven by both continued closed system and single-use Vapour growth. In the U.S., our PMTAs for Vuse Alto’s two Tobacco flavour products remain under FDA review. These applications further built on the foundational science of our successful tobacco flavour submissions for Vuse Solo, Ciro and Vibe. We are confident of a successful outcome for the Vuse Alto PMTAs remaining under FDA review, and consistent with the agency’s most recently communicated time frame, expected to hear in the coming months.

We are challenging the FDA Market Denial Order for Vuse Alto Menthol flavour and have recently been granted a permanent stay by the court. Outside the U.S., we continue to approach the growing single-use Vapour segment in a responsible way, in line with our International Marketing Principles and Underage Access Prevention guidelines, as well as participating in takeback schemes for responsible disposal. In Heated Products, glo reported revenue was down 2.5%, and up 4.1% on an organic basis. While our organic volume grew 12% and our share of the combined Combustibles and Heated Products category continued to grow, glo’s Heated Product category volume share was down 110 basis points to 18.2%. Continued category volume share momentum in key AME markets, including Poland and the Czech Republic, was offset by highly competitive markets in Japan and Italy.

As Tadeu highlighted, we have more to do, but I’m pleased to say that our newest innovations, glo Hyper pro and veo, demonstrates our ability to bring innovative products to the market. This will be further supported over the medium-term by our recent patent settlement. Moving to Modern Oral, our portfolio continued to grow, with Modern Oral volume up 33.6%, and revenue up 39% driven by further geographic expansion and innovation. We continue to grow our volume share of Total Oral, while our Modern Oral category share was down, mainly impacted by the U.S. We are encouraged by the strong results from our recent Velo pilot in New York, featuring a more premium brand expression and design and plan further roll-outs in 2024. In addition, we remain confident of securing the PMTA for our Europe-leading Velo 2.0 platform to support our long-term competitiveness in the U.S. Outside the U.S., we maintained clear leadership of Modern Oral category.

I’m delighted to share that in most markets Velo is contributing to the increase in category profitability with a fast payback period of less than two years. We continue to see a significant opportunity for Modern Oral in emerging markets with strong volume growth in Pakistan and Kenya. Now turning to Combustibles. Our cigarette volume declined by 5.3% on an organic basis. Adjusted for markets exited during the year and our volume declined 4.6% compared to an industry decline of 3.4%. This difference is mainly due to lower U.S. industry volume and share loss due to our premium position and the impact of significant excise increases in Pakistan. Combustibles price mix remained strong, up 6%, with pricing offset mainly by geographic mix. Together, this resulted in a 0.6% increase in organic revenues.

Group volume share was flat, with gains in AME, offset by APMEA and the U.S. Group value share was down 40 basis points, reflecting the impact of our commercial plans in the U.S. and losses in APMEA, while we held share in AME. We are performing very well in Combustibles outside the U.S., where organic revenue increased by almost 7%, with re-invigorated portfolios, refreshed brands and sharpened execution. This demonstrates the benefit of our global footprint and our ability to deliver in challenging environments. Turning now to the regions. In AME, we saw an outstanding delivery in 2023: Total organic revenues was up 13%, driven by higher revenue from Combustibles reflecting a resilient volume performance and pricing. Alongside continued growth across each New Category, with revenue up 39%.

AME is a true multi-category region and smokeless products now represent 23% of regional revenue in markets where we are present. Adjusted profit from operations was up 10%, driven by the improved financial performance in key markets. Moving to APMEA, where we saw strong financial delivery. Total revenue was up over 5%, with a robust Combustibles performance driven by pricing. Notably, pricing in Pakistan, more than offset the impact of excise-led volume decline; while volume growth continued in Bangladesh. Vapour and Modern Oral revenue were both up over 70%, which was partly offset by a decline in Heated Products mainly in Japan, resulting in 3% New Category growth for the region overall. Smokeless products now represents around 20% of regional revenue in markets where we are present.