Axcelis Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ:ACLS) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Craig Ellis: The first – yes, thanks. The first thing I wanted to do is follow-up on one of Charles inquiries. I was hoping that as you provided some color on just quoting activity broadly and orders, if you could just focus on what you’ve seen fourth quarter to date and clarify if fourth quarter to date, so over the last month, things have been broadly steady, broadly strong with limited signs of weakness?

Doug Lawson: Yes, Craig. We don’t break out the quote activity or the bookings for a given quarter. But I think we’re seeing continued good strength in power and silicon carbide. Like everyone else in the industry, there is – we’re seeing some of the softening, as Russell mentioned, in some of the mature markets, moving a little bit beyond just consumer. So I think our quote activity and our bookings reflect the general market behavior.

Craig Ellis: Got it. And then, Doug, just to follow-up with the team on some of the longer-term issues. Nice to get the finer point on calendar ‘25’s potential with the target model. I know you’re not providing guidance for calendar ‘24. But I was hoping you could frame up some of the gives and takes that you see as you look at calendar ‘24, specifically, for example, would you expect that DRAM could get materially better, same with CIS? And what are some of the gives and takes within mature foundry broadly outside of CIS?

Doug Lawson: Yes. So I think the mature foundry market, which, as we all know, has never suffered a downturn because it didn’t exist until a few years ago. So everyone is starting to try to figure out exactly how it cycles. And it appears probably tied very much to more economic factors and so forth. So I think as we go into 2024, a lot is going to depend on what the economy is doing and so forth relative to that, which will drive consumer spending, drive the industrial back and drive general automotive, not just the power piece. And so that’s how we think the market is going to behave. As far as the specific segments, image sensors are very much driven by phones. And so we will see how this cycle of phones look for Axcelis and for ion implant.

The other factor that drives it is the next generation of technology, which drives our products like our VXE and our Purion XE Max. And then the other factor relative to memory or the rest of your question, I mean, at this point, we haven’t really changed our position. We see the second half of next year, the beginning of DRAM coming back in 2025 to be a strong DRAM year. NAND probably is still slow until 2025. And the drivers on DRAM near-term, there is some China activity and then there is the HBM and some other technology things. Those are going to – those are going to use up capacity and improve utilization in fabs, that ultimately will lead to CapEx focus on implant.

Craig Ellis: That’s helpful. Thanks, Doug. Thanks, guys.

Operator: Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Our next call comes from Mark Miller of The Benchmark Company. Mark, your line is open.

Mark Miller: Congratulations on another strong quarter. I was just wondering, certainly, EV has been a major driver, but do you see any momentum related to AI?

Doug Lawson: Yes. I think AI is going to drive a bunch of things, Mark. AI, first and foremost, is driving advanced logic, right? And that was really highlighted by what AMD said the other day and what NVIDIA has been saying. Second thing is that it’s driving the advanced packaging for the HBM technology. Ultimately, AI will drive a big piece of the market, right? It’s dependent on data, which it gets from IoT devices as well as every other feed that it can get, it will drive big amounts of DRAM even beyond HBM in the servers and then lots and lots of storage in the form of NAND. So it is a very important long-term driver over the next many years.

Mark Miller: You mentioned DRAM possibly coming back before for NAND. I just was wondering, I think the estimates are that for an AI server, there is 6x more DRAM. Is that one of the drivers or is that one of the factors and your thoughts about DRAM coming back somewhat sooner?

Doug Lawson: Yes. I think that is definitely one. HBM, which is an advanced packaging use of DRAM, where it’s packaged directly on the GPU. That will help. And then in general, the general server DRAM. The other thing that will drive DRAM back will be consumer coming back, PC refresh cycles, if there is a good phone cycle. All of those things will help drive the DRAM market back.

Mark Miller: Thank you.

Operator: Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from Jed Dorsheimer of William Blair. Jed, your line is open.

Jed Dorsheimer: Hey, thanks. And congratulations, and Jamie, look forward to working with you too.

Jamie Coogan: Yes. Thank you, Jed.

Jed Dorsheimer: I guess, first question on silicon carbide. What percentage of the quoting activity is on 200-millimeter versus 150-millimeter? I’m assuming most is on 150-millimeter, but just curious on how that picked up on 200-millimeter?

Doug Lawson: Yes, Jed, so we don’t break out the specifics our customers found on us giving those kind of details. But in general, the market is pushing sort of production level at 150-millimeter with many lines, pilot lines at 200-millimeter with a plan to ramp those as the materials are available. And on recent calls of material suppliers, things are looking positive that materials will start to become more available, and that will drive our customers towards 200-millimeter for their next fabs or expanding their many fabs. So we’re definitely seeing plenty of 200-millimeter activity, but still the bulk of production is probably on 150-millimeter.

Jed Dorsheimer: Got it. The third of my question is, is there anything within your tool design that would cause your uptime on 200-millimeter to be lower than that of 150-millimeter? And I’m asking is – has recently come up with about uptime issues. And I’m just curious what the difference may be and whether or not that’s a competitive advantage as we look at your tools versus some of your competitors?