AvalonBay Communities, Inc. (NYSE:AVB) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

But same with the dispose. And again what happened is we pivoted to being a net seller of assets so we sell first. And in many cases we’re holding some of those proceeds for a 10/31 exchange and that’s informing kind of our appetite on the buy side. So we were net sellers of $200 million or really more like $230 million after you factor in the assumed debt in terms of the cash proceeds we realized from it. The other thing I’d say is when you think about what we bought versus what we sold, it is a good illustration of what we’re doing with our portfolio allocation. We sold the four assets out of our established regions they were on average 25 years old. We sold them at an average price of $450000 a unit and the average rents on those assets was $3300 a month.

The three assets we bought were in Dallas and in the Greater Charlotte area. In all three cases, there are assets where we are able to add value through our operating platform in many cases. It’s part of getting to operating scale in those regions. So we think that – while the cap rate is the mid-4s the yield is more like a 5. Between some value add, we’re doing a little bit of light value-add with washer dryers and some hard surface flooring, but a lot of it is just bringing it onto our operating platform, as we get economies of scale in those regions. And those three assets on average are seven years old. We paid on average $245,000 a door, which is below today’s replacement cost as Ben mentioned and average rent of $1,700. So a much more affordable price point which we think has a much better growth profile.

James Feldman: Okay. Thank you for that. I mean M&A commented this morning that they’re seeing developers cut rents, so that they can get occupancy up and get assets ready for sale, if they’re having debt maturities. So I guess, sticking with kind of the distressed line of questioning, I mean do you think that’s coming your way in your expansion markets? And then similarly, as you think about the SIP book over the next few years, I know you mentioned $400 million, but do you think this environment helps you accelerate that? And do you have a view on maybe what you could do over the next 12 months? And what kind of yields?

Ben Schall: Jamie, it’s Ben. I’ll step in. We’re not seeing distress at this point. We do expect there to be some dislocation that comes through the system. And on the buying side, a couple of different areas in which we’re hunting. One is what Matt talked about places where we can be adding to the density of our portfolio assets and nearby, other assets places where we can add incremental value by bringing the operating initiative activity over to our acquisitions, so that’s very much top of mind. Another potential pool and we’ve been staying close to potential opportunities here are deals and lease-up that maybe are coming up against nearer term loan maturities. What we’ve been seeing there to date is situations where equity capital is putting more equity into those deals, effectively recapitalizing them and/or lenders who are agreeing to extend out those loans.

And so, what you’re finding is the borrowers and lenders are agreeing to say extend, it out you get the step-up in the interest rate not going to be a lot of cash flow generated off of the asset, but better to extend there, get the asset fully leased then monetize it, at least for the types of assets in the markets that we’re looking to acquire in. Now, that won’t be the case right for all types of equity. There’s going to be equity that doesn’t have the ability to put in more capital and it won’t be the case for all types of lenders, right? There’s only certain profiles of lenders that can extend out. So, it’s an area that we are staying close to. Quickly on kind of two other areas of opportunity, one on the land side. So our developers as Matt talked about today are actively reworking our existing pipeline, recutting deals, restriking deals.

We’re also out looking for new land opportunities. And the current capital environment and our expectations for what that capital environment will be over the next year, we expect to see opportunities there. Apparently, there’s going to be less competition from merchant builders in those markets. So, it’ll be selective, but that could be a fruitful area. And then the third area of opportunity is providing capital to the third-party developers. And we have two programs there, DFP and SIP. We’ll be selective. But for sure, in terms of the quality of sponsor, that’s approaching us the quality of the real estate that they have under control and the return profile of those deals, all of that is enhanced in this environment. And so that’s another place that we can deploy capital accretively.

James Feldman: So, on the SIP, do you have a sense of how much you can deploy over the next year or so?

Ben Schall: So, in the SIP, it’s — we have a target of building that book of business up to $300 million to $500 million over a couple of year period. Given the financing markets, it is tough for deals to pencil, but there are some that do. We are very selective. These are deals we’re underwriting not to own them, but to be comfortable owning them if we need to. And in places where we can get a 13% return; we think that’s a pretty attractive source of capital. So it’s an area of focus. I wouldn’t necessarily say it’s an area we’re looking to accelerate activity. We want to build that book up in a measured way over the next couple of years.

James Feldman: Okay, great. Thank you.

Operator: Our next question comes from Michael Goldsmith with UBS. Please proceed with your question.

Michael Goldsmith: Good afternoon. Thanks a lot for taking my question. My first question is on customer behavior. Can you provide a little color on traffic, the percentage of people looking to move out to buy homes? And just if you’re seeing anything about residents doubling up. And related to that, I believe it seems like a long time ago but November, December of 2022 was particularly weak and then it rebounded in — early in 2023. So how are you thinking about the last three months? Do you expect the trajectory to repeat as it did last year, or should we see some better growth in the fourth quarter here on the easier comparisons? Thank you.