Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (NASDAQ:ADP) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Maria Black: Yes. So I’ll let Don comment on the – how the bookings kind of relate to the models on the revenue side. But from an overall bookings perspective, what we cited in the prepared remarks is that we do anticipate the middle of the range. So we did keep the range constant. So it’s constant with the outset of the year, it’s also constant with last quarter’s guidance. So we are keeping that 6% to 9% range. We do anticipate at this point, the middle of that range. And we feel pretty confident heading into the fourth quarter when we take a look at how we exited March, but also taking a look at the number of sellers we have, the investments we’ve made into the ecosystem and as those sellers ultimately gain tenure because we’re actually lapping a lot of new hires that we had, if you will, a year ago.

So pretty excited as we step in the other part of that. Confidence is really about what we’re seeing as it relates to the overall pipeline. So pipelines are strong. That’s more of a, call it, enterprise and international or large deal type of comment. We’re seeing tremendous activity in the top of the funnel still upmarket. So the down market continues to shine for us, and that’s really supported by what we’re seeing in continued increases in new business formations. We’re also seeing those new business formations generate inbound leads. So we’re seeing good activity on the digital side. So feel confident as we step into the fourth quarter, and then I’ll let Don comment on how the – ultimately where we land in the fourth quarter and how that translates into revenue for us next year.

Don McGuire: Yes. So on the modeling side, roughly a 1% change in ES bookings growth impacts us in the $17 million to $20 million annually on revenue growth. So that’s kind of how we think about your models. I think that’s been pretty consistent.

Danny Hussain: Yes. And Brian, the timing is – it depends on the business. Obviously, strong performance in the downmarket will impact revenue much more quickly. And if you have strong global view sales at the other end of the extreme, that can take several months to even more than a year, in some cases, to roll in. So, typical rule of thumb for us is a couple of quarters to see the full impact. But of course, the bookings throughout the year have been pretty consistent for us. And so I wouldn’t expect any real callouts from the revenue timing standpoint.

Bryan Keane: Great. Alright, thanks for the color.

Operator: Thank you. Our next question comes from Eugene Simuni with MoffettNathanson. Your line is open.

Eugene Simuni: Hi, guys. Good morning. Maria, I wanted to pick back up on your comments about the break down market. Maybe elaborate on that a little bit, what are the macro factors, your competitive positioning that’s still supporting that? And if you could contrast that for us a little bit with what’s going on in the mid-market. I know it’s still doing well. But if the question is, is there a path for mid-market to get to as strong of a point down market? And what are the levers that maybe you’re able to pull to get you there?

Maria Black: Absolutely. So I’ll start with the down market, just to kind of reiterate the strength we’re seeing there top of funnel. So we are very pleased with what we saw in the performance of the down market. That’s also inclusive of the down market ecosystem. So I think this is our run platform. I talked about the third quarter onboarding 60,000 clients. It’s pretty incredible. Those clients also, many of them have attach rates of our retirement services offering, our insurance services offering. So the entire down market portfolio it’s definitely performing well for us and has for quite some time. It is driven by what we’re seeing macro. And so you just kind of reiterate what we’ve seen as new business formations are up year-on-year, 8%, by the way, they are still up year on pandemic, as I call it.

So they are actually if you look at current new business formations versus the year of 2019, right? So pre-pandemic, it’s actually 8,000 or so a week. This is all from the U.S. Census Bureau. So, from the standpoint of what we are seeing that kind of emanate into the pipelines and into the top of the funnel, we do have double-digit growth in our digital inbound leads, right. So I think these are at the OSEM ads, where ultimately clients are coming to us, and we’re meeting those clients with our inside sellers and the demand is there, the demand is strong. In terms of the mid-market, the mid-market was a bit softer this quarter than it was last quarter. That said, we also are very excited about the pipeline that we’re seeing in the mid-market that specifically call it the, the tech only, we do have strength in our Employer Services HR outsourcing offering, which also touches the mid-market.

So combined, your question around, is there a path to see tremendous growth there between those businesses, we are seeing growth, and we are excited about our overall mid-market position from a competitive landscape. We do have our next-generation payroll engine that’s attached to about 30% to 40% of our mid-market new business sales. And what I will tell you is it’s resonating incredibly well in the market. It’s resonating with the sellers. That’s always a good sign when they like to talk about it and they like the demo it. It’s also resonating in terms of the competitive landscape and more wins. And so we feel that there is definitely a pass. That’s what we’re investing in, both in product and the ecosystem to have the mid-market be as an exciting of a story as the down market is for us.

Eugene Simuni: Got it. Very helpful color. Thank you. And then for my follow-up, I want to quickly come back to the PEO. Can you talk a little bit about the kind of the macro headwinds for the PEO order? I think we discussed last time, specifically the insurance attach rates, insurance premiums, kind of blocking PEO growth. Is that still a factor or not any long-term?

Maria Black: Yes. What I would say is that the PEO demand remains strong. And so we’re bullish about the secular tailwinds of the PEO. We’re bullish about the value proposition. As it relates to benefits and benefits attached. I know there is a lot of discussions, there are a lot of surveys out there from the likes of Kaiser, etcetera, as it relates to our clients making different choices. I think what we see within our base is perhaps some asks of that. And on the peripheral kind of on the margin, perhaps there is price sensitivity as it relates to benefits. What that really allows for is for our sellers just need to be, call it, more surgical as they go to market. But in terms of the value proposition of the PEO and benefits still being a big component of that, that is the case.

We skew definitely a bit more white collar in our PEO. In addition to that, our model with a fully insured model is a little bit different. And so the companies that we attract our PEO are still companies that want to be employers of choice, and employers of choice especially in a macro environment, such as this one, where talent is still the name of the game. They want to offer benefits and benefits are a piece of that. So what I would say is we are not seeing huge signs. I think even if you take a look at the revenue , you would be able to see kind of what’s happening with benefit revenue. So there is not huge signs that there is a shift in benefits attractiveness. I think the shift that we see is just the sharpness that our sellers need to have as they position the value proposition and, call it, the right plans and the right rate to the right clients.

Eugene Simuni: Got it. Thank you very much.

Operator: Thank you. Our next question comes from Kevin McVeigh with Credit Suisse. Your line is open.