Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. (NYSE:AESI) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Bud Brigham: Yeah. I’ll start on that. The M&A — it’s just certainly inevitable that it’s going to continue. There’s real leverage with scale. And given the opportunity to leverage down for our unit costs and benefit from that scale and with more automation outlets it’s very much differentiated in that regard. It’s the largest proppant producer with growing logistics offerings that nobody else can match. So it really plays to our strength over the long-haul. Nobody is better at providing large amounts of proppant timely and reliably than Atlas. And with our growing logistics offerings and the solutions we’re providing particularly to Dune Express it’s only going to get better. So the M&A activity plays to our strength and will continue to over time. So do you guys want to add to that Jeff or John?

Jeff Allison: Yeah. I’ll just say that one example. The recent M&A has created an overall market share increase opportunity within the NUCO [ph] as a result of one our current position in both sand and logistics within the independent entities of the M&A, our proven reliability that we demonstrated internally; and three our new industry-leading scope scale and offerings. So this is all translating into an Atlas addend for the NUCO moving forward. So overall creating an accretive union.

Bud Brigham: Yeah. I mean just in the big picture. When I think back to several decades ago the Permian was probably dominated to a degree by smaller operators mom-and-pops. And I think that day has gone past. And now it’s all about scale and the leverage associated with that. And so these operators need to have scale proppant and logistic solutions provider. And that’s what Atlas is positioned to provide.

Derek Podhaizer: Great. Appreciate the color. I’ll turn it back.

Operator: Our next question comes from Jim Rollyson with Raymond James. Please proceed with your question.

Jim Rollyson: Good morning, gentlemen. And Bud you mentioned just — when we talked about pricing and the different dynamics in the market on wet sand versus dry scale guys that need to hit the spot market versus contracted. And obviously you guys have done a fantastic job over your history of growing the scale and being reliable et cetera. I’m curious how you view the value to that scale and reliability when it comes to kind of pricing premium over the spot market numbers that we all see quoted in a market like we’ve been in where things have kind of softened a little bit. Now we feel like we’re bottoming and starting to turn. But just maybe some color commentary on pricing premium for what you guys actually provide?

Bud Brigham: Yes. Well, thank you. Well first just some general comments. There’s a reason that some companies specifically Atlas are fully contracted while others have proppant to offer on the market — in the spot market. And as I mentioned in my comments a lot of it does — is a function of reliability and dependability. And as an operator, there’s nothing that will upset your quarter, your return on your projects and your production and your goals than not having the proppant when you need it and not having quality proppant when you need it. And so, that is mission critical for us. And I think it’s what differentiates us in the market. Some of the smaller proppant providers and some of the different wet sand, has its own issues, et cetera.

They’re just not as optimal for the large-scale operators who really are dependent on that reliability and dependability as well as the other infrastructure solutions that we’re offering that continue to enhance that. So I think there is a real bifurcation in the market. And so, I do think spot pricing can kind of be a little bit indicative of pricing trends directionally. But I do think there’s been too much attention on the spot pricing in the market and maybe an over extrapolation of what that indicates on sand.

John Turner: Yeah. We’ve been told by a number of our customers that they contracted Atlas because of our reliability and service. And they also indicate that they pay more at Atlas more than they do other sand and logistics companies. I really don’t know how to answer toward that — we don’t have an answer what that amount is. Our customers don’t tell us what they’re paying our competitors for sand and service. But what I will say is that, I do think an example of our quality is shown in our level of contracting or high level of activity over the past few quarters. I mean you’ve seen a 20% decrease in the frac market over the past six months. And we’ve maintained very high activity levels during that time.

Chris Scholla: Yeah. And I’ll add that this is nothing new, right? We know those players and folks that come in and offer extremely low prices. We’ve seen that throughout our five years of existence and throughout the cycles. I think what — we don’t have any peers that are pure play at Permian sand and logistics companies that are public to see that and qualify that price for you. But I will say that we price our products and services according to that value proposition for our customers. And we’ve been extremely successful pricing them appropriately.

Jim Rollyson: Yeah. I didn’t expect you to give an absolute number. So the color is very helpful. And John, maybe as a follow-up. When we think about costs, obviously, you guys had to step up in cost late last year as you were rolling from third party to internal on the dredging side. And those had come down. It seems like they flattened out. As we think about this over the next four quarters or so, should we think about OpEx generally being relatively stable until the new dredges come in and are fully functional and operating in mid next year? And then maybe just a little color on how much that should improve costs as –maybe on a percentage basis.

John Turner: Back in — so we have plateaued. I do think we’re working on some things right now that could potentially have an impact on that. But the biggest impact you’re going to see is, like you said, when the dredges come on fully commissioned which is expected by middle of next year. Our lowest ever I guess OpEx per ton was around $6.50 a ton. And that’s when we were 100% the dredge mining. That dredge mining provides us with around a $2 to $3 cost advantage versus traditional mining, which we still are doing quite a bit of that. So at least, at some point next year, you’re going to start seeing our cost trend down more towards that $6.50 — I mean probably more in the $7, $7.50 mid-seven type range. And that’s where we’re focused right now.

Jim Rollyson: That’s helpful. Thank you.

Operator: Our next question comes from Ati Modak with Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your question.

Ati Modak: Hi. Good morning team. You noted some progress on the Dune Express. Obviously, it stays on track. But maybe help us understand the steps that you’re looking at until it gets commenced in the fourth quarter of next year and any factors that you are keeping an eye on?

Bud Brigham: Yes. Maybe I’ll just start. These guys may add to it. We built both of our plans. We did the expansion that’s nearing completion here in the fourth quarter ourselves. And obviously, our team is really very skilled and been very successful at these probably more complex projects than building the Dune Express which Dune Express is kind of a rinse-and-repeat process, down the length of the line building it. I don’t know if you guys can answer. Is there an area — given that we’ve ordered the majority of the material and contracted the labor, I think as I mentioned in my conference call text that really mitigates the risk to the budget.