Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (NYSE:AJG) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

Charles Peters: Makes sense. Okay. And the other — just the other sort of cleanup question on Buck consulting. Can you give us — is there any sort of cadence in terms of how the revenue flows and how the margins are. I mean is it heavier in the first quarter, either revenue or margins? Or any sort of color you can add as we — and just as a follow-up, I assume that’s also going to get folded into the Brokerage segment, correct?

Douglas Howell: Yes. So it will be part of our Brokerage segment and our Employee Benefit operation. Greg, we don’t think we’re going to close that in the first quarter. We think it’s more of a second quarter close at this point. I don’t really have a good quarterly spread that I would feel comfortable giving on the call today for that because we have to apply our study on conforming the accounting principles to theirs, apply our 606 assumptions to it. So I need a little more time to work through that. And we just signed the deal 30 days ago, and I just need to until March to give you that quarterly spread.

Operator: Our next questions come from the line of Michael Ward with Citi.

Michael Ward: We heard, I guess, one of your peers about — talk about programs participants pushing back on capacity or trying to restructure commissions. I was wondering if you’re seeing something similar.

Patrick Gallagher: No.

Douglas Howell: Not really.

Patrick Gallagher: Not really.

Michael Ward: Okay. Second one, I guess I was wondering, your deal spend has kind of accelerated over the last few months. It seems hoping you could maybe discuss the drivers behind that. And maybe talk about how you see 2023 playing out in this regard?

Patrick Gallagher: We have definitely seen a change in the competitive environment vis-a-vis mergers and acquisitions in the last 60 days. I’m not going to sit here and say it’s not still competitive, it is. But I would say that the number of bidders is reduced, and we are seeing maybe, what I would call, a more attentive seller to exactly who the buyer is, what the culture is, the strategic value of that buyer that maybe existed 12 months ago.

Douglas Howell: Yes, we usually see a little bit of an uptick in the fourth quarter as people push to get things done by the end of the year, sometimes that’s driven by tax or other financial planning that the sellers want to get done. But if there is a noticeable change in the market. I would say that we feel very good about our pipeline right now. There are some names on there that are really nice to have looking at us. So a little bit of an uptick in the fourth quarter, naturally, change in market competitiveness a little bit. But I also think it’s going to be pretty strong in the first couple of quarters of the year relative to what we saw this year, in particular.

Operator: Our next questions come from the line of Elyse Greenspan with Wells Fargo.

Elyse Greenspan: Maybe sticking on the M&A point. You guys seem pretty optimistic with the pipeline, and you have announced a good number of deals of late. But if I look on the CFO commentary sheet, you also write the multiples you’re seeing on deals went up 1x, right, 10 to 11x from 9 to 10, what are you seeing, I guess, in the market that’s driving up multiples a little bit?

Douglas Howell: I think it’s mix right now is what we’re seeing is — I think that you’re seeing some pretty high performing names on the list where the growth factors are a little bit bigger than maybe they were in the past. But one turn on that, it wouldn’t overly react to it one way or another.

Elyse Greenspan: And then with your margin guide for kind of the 50 to 60 basis points of expansion, are you assuming any wage inflation embedded within that guide?