Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (NYSE:AJG) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

Douglas Howell: For the full year, right? So when I look at rate and exposure, as I did, our new business, we had a terrific new business here. So I’ll say that our net new business spread was about 4 points and the rest of that is probably rate and exposure, remember between that. So maybe, again, you think about it, 1/3, 1/3, 1/3 net new business over loss business is 1/3, rate was 1/3 and exposure unit growth was 1/3.

Unidentified Analyst: Got it. Okay. And then as a quick follow-up, do you have any comments on the degree to which fiduciary investment income will impact margins next year, kind of thinking about that 50 bps of expansion on 6% organic, how much that move from fiduciary investment income?

Douglas Howell: I think the — when we give the guidance of 6 points, if we grow organically, 6%, we think we can show about 50 basis points of margin expansion on that. Investment income would be a sweetener to that. to a certain extent. But I don’t have a clear line of sight yet on the size of our raise pool and our hiring needs going into next year. We understand our budget. So I can’t give you a specific number on it, but you give me a pick on what you think wage inflation is going to be next year to take care of our folks, and I can probably give you that number, but I don’t think we’re ready yet. I might be able to give you some more of that in March.

Operator: Our next questions come from the line of Greg Peters with Raymond James.

Charles Peters: I’m going to stick on the margin commentary. In your press releases on Page 4, you talked about the operating expense ratio and some of the pressures on that. So when you — in your guide the 50 basis points or so of margin expansion provided 6% organic, how do we think about those factors affecting your ability to expand margins? And then just on the margin expansion, can you break it out based on business unit like is it going to come in international that you’re going to get margin expansion or is it going to come into the employee benefits business, you get margin expansion? Or can you source where you think that’s going to — where that — where the improvement is going to come from?

Douglas Howell: Right. A couple of things. On the operating expense ratio, it was up in fourth quarter versus ’21 fourth quarter, was up about 30 to 40 basis points, let’s call it, 40 basis points on that. I think the footnote on that is explaining where it’s coming from, mostly travel and entertainment, some consulting use and investments in technology. So I’d say it’s probably half of that increase is investments and half of it is just the inflation that we’re seeing in travel and consulting costs on that. When you’re — I think the next question was how am I seeing that vis-a-vis next year. Remember, we were still in the omicron portion of the pandemic in the first quarter. So we are going to see a little more travel and entertainment expense return in our first quarter, but we don’t see it being up significantly in the second, third and fourth quarters.

So we’re looking at 50 basis points of expansion next year. Most of that will come in the later 3 quarters than the first quarter. And what was there was another piece of your question, Greg?

Charles Peters: It was just when I think about within the Brokerage business, the different business units, the employee benefits, the international the retail RPS, when you look at it that way, where do you think the opportunity is for margin expansion in the context of that 50 basis points or so guidance?

Douglas Howell: Yes, it’s pretty much so across all of them, Greg — there is no standout in there anywhere that’s a laggard in there.