ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. (NYSE:ARR) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Jeffrey Zimmer: So eventually, mortgages are going to be so attractive versus other places where funds can be invested that you’re going to see buyers come in. And this is why Mark and his team exposed — increased their exposure, excuse me, to the Ginnie Mae sector to almost $1.5 billion right now. Because we know banks are going to be more interested in buying Ginnie Mae’s. And we know that the convexity features of mortgages when they have way lower dollar prices. So I mean even 6.5 are well below par right now. So these are going to have interest to investors. You just have to wait out bear markets, and that’s what we’re doing. Mark, do you want to improve on that?

Mark Gruber: Yes. When we see — start to see banks and money measures come back in and banks are going to be the biggest player. I think that’s going to drive spreads in. When loan growth and deposit growth go in better directions for security purchases, that’s when we’ll start to see things tighten.

Matthew Erdner: Got it. Thank you.

Operator: The next question comes from Christopher Nolan with Ladenburg Thalmann. Please go ahead.

Christopher Nolan: Hi, guys, thanks for taking my question. Given on the capital management front, I know you have not issued stock quarter-to-date, but have you repurchased any shares?

Jeffrey Zimmer: At the point we wanted to repurchase, we were in a blackout period. So the answer is we’ve not repurchased any to date. Jim Mountain was very explicit in his comments, though, that blackout ends on Monday and the Board authority has increased our ability to repurchase shares. So we will be considering that, but take note of what Scott said as well, if you would, please. So there’s three things you have to think about. Number one, we’re always thinking about liquidity. And our liquidity is quite good right now. So that would enable us on the margin to repurchase shares. Then we balance the use of that capital versus where Mark and his team could invest money and they modeled, they decide what is the best use of capital.

Christopher Nolan: Great. And then on leverage, where are you thinking about taking leverage forward? It looks fairly flat quarter-to-date relative to September 30. But given everything you have been discussing, it sounds like you want to be in a more defensive posture. Just trying to understand where you think leverage might go.

Mark Gruber: So leverage for us, we have to balance the fact that we still see so much volatility going forward. And we don’t want to get over our skis and have to force to sell assets because our leverage gets too high. So we’re trying to balance this. And as Scott said in his remarks, we did several trades in Q3, as the things we’re selling off and our leverage was increasing to decrease leverage and decrease risk. But we still want to have enough risk on when things turn, we are in a position that we could take advantage of that. So we want to have enough dry powder that we can withstand rates continuing to rise and spreads continue to widen, but enough leverage on that when things go the other way, we are able to take that advantage and see the increase in book value.

Jeffrey Zimmer: But as I noted earlier, go ahead. Please.

Christopher Nolan: No, no please go ahead, please.

Jeffrey Zimmer: As I noted earlier, we’re at 7.9 right now. I doubt you would see us getting much over 8 in the current environment.

Christopher Nolan: Great. Final question. Reason for the decline in net interest income quarter-over-quarter given investment margins were relatively flat and your agency volumes went up since last quarter. Is that a timing issue?