Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. (NYSE:AMBP) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Oliver Graham: Sure, Anthony. Look, I think there’s every reason to be positive about future Brazil demand in cans. The market’s probably flat, should be flat to positive by the end of the year in what has been a very tough time for the Can, given the amount of inflation that came through from high LME, from the devaluation of the real and all of that meant for metal costs going into cans. So I think as those effects normalize and we are seeing the economy improve, it’s definitely having a better year than forecast. We’ll see retail pricing on cans normalize, and we’ll see growth back in cans. And I think there is a limit to the returnable recovery that’s happened this year, so I think that will flatten out, and we’ll go back to the old trends that we saw.

But clearly, we’ve missed a year or 2 of growth. And clearly, therefore, the absolute volume in cans in the market at the moment is down than what everybody anticipated, and that’s impacting our growth and the growth of others. And the destocking I mentioned, that was a very specific linked to the customer that went through the judicial reorganization. So I don’t think we’re seeing broad-scale destocking now. I think Brazil customers have rebalanced. We’re seeing a rough, good match between sales and shipments. And as I said, I think we’ve had signs of good growth in the market already in the last couple of months, and we’d be hopeful for that continuing.

Anthony Pettinari: Okay. That’s very helpful. And then just shifting gears. You talked about the raised working capital guidance and the free cash flow performance, which is very helpful. Can you talk a little bit more about the dividend? The stock is trading, I guess, 14% dividend yield. Understanding you’re not giving guidance for 2024. I’m just wondering if you can maybe highlight some of the puts and takes for free cash flow maybe next year going forward, that can help us kind of think about the dividend and dividend sustainability.

Oliver Graham: Sure. I’ll kick it off, and I’ll pass to David for some other comments. But look, I think, as you say, we just had a very strong cash performance. We see that cash performance improving into the year-end, and we see our CapEx coming down in ’24 and beyond because we’ve built out a very strong network with new efficient capacity that we can grow into for a number of years. So we think that, that underpins the dividend. We’ve got lots of other actions we can take, and we feel confident about that. So as far as we’re concerned, nothing has changed. We think the dividend is important to our shareholders and is a core part of our capital structure. But I’ll also pass to David for any other puts and takes on cash flow.

David Bourne: Yes. Thanks, Ollie. So obviously, we go into next year with enhanced liquidity from where our initial modeling was to start with. And as Ollie rightly alluded…

Oliver Graham: There’s something going on with our line. Do you still hear me, Anthony?

Anthony Pettinari: I do. I do.

David Bourne: Is that better now?

Anthony Pettinari: Yes, I can hear you.

David Bourne: Yes. Perfect. Sorry about that. Thanks, Ollie. Anthony, so as Ollie alluded to, I think we go into the new year with stronger liquidity, which is clearly a positive. What we have is the impact of the reduction in our growth investment CapEx spend, which will be of the order of $200 million. And if you look at our working capital inflow this year, that’s also the order of $200 million. So you can think about the 2 in the same breath when you’re kind of thinking through 2024 and then probably modelling earnings growth over the top of that when we’re thinking about kind of free cash flow coverage of the dividend at that state.

Operator: And our next question will come from George Staphos with Bank of America.