Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. (NASDAQ:AAOI) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Timothy Savageaux: Got it. And let’s stay on this topic for a second. And Stefan, you described four customers evaluating the products. Can you give us any indications of the type of customers those might be large, cloud operators, networking OEMs, what have you?

Stefan Murry: Mostly large cloud operators with at least one OEM that supplies some of the large cloud operators. So it’s all cloud, it’s all hyperscale cloud related, whether it’s directly or through an OEM that was supplied.

Thompson Lin: And one big AI company. You know what I’m talking about. So I don’t know how you define it. It’s not cloud operator, but it’s really, that maybe they’ll become the number one customer in the world for the data center transceiver.

Timothy Savageaux: Okay. Great. And last one for me and maybe kind of related to that, I mean, can you give us a sense of kind of — I don’t know whether it’s unit volumes or revenue dollars, but how do you assess the kind of total opportunity for AI-related, would call it transceivers or AOCs? And how has that assessment of market opportunity evolve for you guys over the past quarter or so?

Thompson Lin: I don’t know. The number sounds crazy, okay. What we heard is for AI under the, I think we are talking about maybe at least minimum six to eight million volume with very good ASP, more than $600, $700. So you can see opportunity next year.

Timothy Savageaux: Thanks, everyone.

Thompson Lin: So it’s at $14 billion plus next year. And some people even come up to me, even higher than Verizon. As you can see, I’ll be very happy if that’s true. That’s why we are putting our resource into AI and G and 1.6T business. For under G, I think we are very competent. That’s very existing. The volume’s coming up for sure, but really the big jump is AI under G and 1.6T for AI related business. And that’s what we heard from the customers

Timothy Savageaux: Great. Thanks very much.

Operator: The next question is from Dave Kang with B. Riley FBR. Please go ahead.

Dave Kang: Thank you, good afternoon. First question is on cable TV. So you said by middle of next year, we should be expecting very strong recovery. So are we talking about like prior peak of, like, say, $30 million or so per quarter? Is that what we should be expecting or not quite there yet?

Stefan Murry: I mean without putting a specific quarter on it, yes, certainly, the expectation is that we can exceed the prior peak levels because at that point, we weren’t really in even an upgrade cycle, right? It was just a sort of a business as usual case. As we move into an upgrade cycle, which is what we think will happen that portends the growth in DOCSIS 4.0, I would say the opportunity there is significantly larger than the previous peak for sure. Not to mention the fact that because of the business model change, our ASPs are going to be higher because we’re not selling through a middleman essentially. And so not only will have higher unit demand, but ASPs will be higher as well.

Thompson Lin: Well, let me say that I would say by Q4 next year, our CATV business should be, I would say more than $40 million in Q4 next year, which very good cost margin, I would say around 40%.

Dave Kang: Okay. And then just on the data center, 100 gig, little surprised why that was so strong because others are saying it’s really 800 gig that’s enjoying strong demand, whereas 100 gig, which is not really not considered to be part of AI, 100 gig is weak. So are you just gaining market share? And how should we think about going forward? Should we be expecting 100 gig to be flat and eventually decay? Can you just talk about the next, what to expect over the next couple of years?