Applied Materials, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMAT) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

We also triangulate the overall capacity being purchased relative to semiconductor market itself. As you know, we test that with intensity and we make sure that equation makes sense to us. And then, from a micro perspective, we also look at the installation of our equipment. So, we make sure when it lands in China. We understand that it’s installed, and then we track the utilization also at a macro level in the market. And we know that all that equipment is being installed and operated. And so, we don’t see signs of unneeded or unwanted or unused equipment pulling up from that perspective. And we think the buys are rational at this point.

Vivek Arya: Okay. Thank you.

Michael Sullivan: Thanks, Vivek.

Operator: Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Krish Sankar of Cowen.

Krish Sankar: Yeah. Hi. Thanks for taking my question. I kind of have a two-part technology question for Gary. You spoke about high-bandwidth memory and how it’s benefiting advanced packaging, which makes a ton of sense given the exposure to TSV, et cetera, but on the other side, it seems like hybrid bonding is slowing down, and some of your hybrid bonding customers are looking at things like thermal compression bonders. Can you give any color on that? And along the same path, Gary, you’ve spoken about Gate-All-Around being like a $1 billion for every 100,000 wafer starts per month incremental opportunity and 5 point share gains for Applied. You’re there in most of those core technologies like epi, vertical epi, ALD, [Selective epi] (ph), et cetera. Are customers in Gate-All-Around making bundling decisions, or are they still going with best-of-breed solution? Thank you.

Gary Dickerson: Thank you. Those are two big questions. Let me start off with high-bandwidth memory packaging. So that uses two critical packaging technologies, Through Silicon Via and micro-bumping to enable the stack DRAM. The great thing for Applied is that we have the broadest portfolio to enable all different types of packaging. CMP, PVD, CVD, etch and plating. So this opportunity for us is meaningful. The TAM for HBM increases about — the overall packaging by about 5%. We’re the overall leader in packaging. As we have talked about, it’s a $1 billion business, and we’re on track to double that over the next three to five years. So that’s definitely a good opportunity. On the hybrid bonding, what I would say is that, we absolutely see hybrid bonding as a great opportunity over time.

It’s not something that is going to generate significant revenue in the short term, but chiplets are something that every single company is focused on. And I do believe all of the things that we’ve discussed relative to growth rates there, we’re still believe that’s on track. And then Gate-All-Around, the other question that you asked, we still see that as about $1 billion opportunity for 100,000 wafer starts per month. In FinFET, we had close to 50% share of that overall FinFET opportunity. We’ve indicated with the full adoption of Gate-All-Around, we have an opportunity to increase our share 5%. And I think one of the things that helps us a lot is that we’re deeply engaged with every company in Gate-All-Around, even with their integration teams, because we have so many of those critical enabling technologies.

So all the things we talked about back to our Master Class when we size that around $1 billion is basically still on track. And relative to ramping Gate-All-Around, we believe that is toward the end of 2024. Yeah. And then, well, the other thing is on the unit processes in IMS. There are some areas of that market where we’re combining different technologies together under vacuum, which is something that’s completely unique for Applied Materials that has a big impact on electrical performance. But the main message is we have very, very deep engagements with all of those integration teams and Gate-All-Around is pretty much on track to what we had talked about previously.