Aon plc (NYSE:AON) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Greg Case: David, I would come back and just think about literally. This is about client relevance as Eric described I think very well. What this is going to do is help us, innovate and be more relevant to clients on the issues that matter most to them that will have impact over time. What we want to be clear though is in terms of sort of the progress. We’re staying mid-single digit or greater organic revenue growth, continuing margin expansion and double-digit free cash flow growth. For us, that will be the validation and this accelerates that strategy and certainly increase its probability and success against that in every way shape or form. And if there’s opportunity beyond that fantastic, but you start with that. We love that story. And we’re incredibly excited about what this does with that story which is just really delivers on it.

David Motemaden: Got it. Thanks. And then maybe, this is an acceleration of Aon United. But you — I believe it was a number maybe five, six years ago that you guys had initially instituted the strategy — the Aon United strategy. So I’m wondering, if you just — if I’m not thinking about this new program, but looking at Aon United in the past once you instituted that program. Is there any way to size historically how much of that program contributed to the organic growth that we saw, I guess maybe leading up to the COVID pandemic?

Greg Case: Well, this is very important, because we obviously track and look at this all the time. This is why as we described in the opening, we came to a level of conviction that said we’re not going to evolve this. We’re doing it now. We’re moving now. We’re going to make the investments now to accelerate faster than we would have before because the track that we’ve laid this continues to get more relevant to clients. If you think about it 10 years ago, we talked about increasing risk. It turns out 10 years later, my God you might have been right on that. There’s risk everywhere around the world interconnected climate is real, all the everything is real, cyber everything. And so our clients are asking for more and the fundamental aspect that everybody can talk about delivering it but unless you’re a connected firm, truly supporting each other around the globe you cannot deliver on it and you certainly can’t innovate at a level that equates to what client demand is.

And so that’s what Aon United has given us. What you’ve seen us do over the last bit of time is really structurally double down on that. Risk capital and human capital only five, six, seven months ago, structurally really connected how we bring analytics across the entire risk spectrum, not just in commercial risk reinsurance but also the risk spectrum on talent, on health, et cetera. All these things come together and that’s the next step sort of in the process. So for us, it isn’t about — it equated to a $1 value here or there or revenue or margin here or there. It’s fundamental D&A. This connectivity around Aon United allowed us to do risk capital and human capital. It allowed us to do on business services. That’s an impossibility without Aon United.

And what we’ve got now with Eric and the team leading risk capital and human capital is a chance to accelerate it into the market with innovation. Under Christa’s leadership with Aon Business Services a chance to really enable it structurally in ways we’ve never done before. So this for us is a natural step that we would have evolved in the process. And all you’re hearing about today is that excitement level is higher than ever before, not because of us but because the clients and our colleagues saying we need this we want to deliver it. And what you see us doing today is saying, okay, we’re going to accelerate and drive it. And that’s really what the investment is about.

David Motemaden: Understood. I appreciate the color.

Operator: Our next question is from Yaron Kinar with Jefferies. Please proceed.

Unidentified Analyst: Hi, guys. Good morning. This is Charlie on for Yaron. You guys in the past have pointed to a multiyear track record of roughly 90 bps of annual margin expansion. And I guess should we expect the new cost savings program to be incremental on top of that, or should we continue to expect roughly 90 bps year-over-year?

Christa Davies: Thanks so much for the question Charlie. So you’re right. For the last 12 years, we’ve delivered 1,120 basis points of margin expansion so approximately 90 basis points a year. And what we’ve said with this program is the $350 million of savings in the year and 2026 will fall to the bottom line. They are incorporated into and a part of our long-term sustainable margin expansion where we will deliver margin expansion in 2023, full year 2024 and over the long-term. And as I mentioned earlier, what we’re really doing Charlie is, we are investing in the business in client-facing innovation and content and capability and data analytics to help solve client needs and provide more innovative solutions to clients to help provide better colleague technology and to drive long-term productivity. And that’s really the heart of the Aon Business Services strategy, which is really the catalyst for us investing here today.

Unidentified Analyst: Okay. Thanks. And then I guess just you guys have talked about expecting cost savings to ramp towards the $350 million by 2026. How should we think about the cadence of the $900 million over that same period?

Christa Davies: We have not given specific guidance on the $900 million, Charlie. So what we will do is report charges and savings each quarter.

Unidentified Analyst: Okay. Thanks.

Operator: Our last question is from Meyer Shields with KBW. Please proceed.

Meyer Shields: Great. Thanks. First, a conceptual question I guess maybe for Eric. You talked about being committed to the M&A space, which suggests that there are disproportionate amounts of expenses relative to current revenues. Can you give us a way of thinking about maybe the margin impact that this revenue pressure is providing?

Eric Andersen: Listen, I wouldn’t think about it that way. I would think about what can we do with the talent while there’s a downturn. And so the skills that those — that that team has in terms of client coverage and product expertise, we can redeploy that across the firm and put them to work today while we’re waiting out the market certainly, still working those clients and trying to innovate with new products and opportunities but at the same time they bring skill sets around client coverage, industry knowledge, product knowledge that we can use across the firm. So they’re not just sitting there, if that was what you’re thinking, but we’re deploying them into the client base.

Meyer Shields: Yes. Okay. I was specially thinking. That is helpful. Second question that I’ve gotten is, sort of an interesting one. When you talk about double-digit free cash flow growth once the charges of this are done is 2022 still a good base for the compound annual growth rate, or is that double digit from the now lower cash flow if we expect — free cash flow we expect through 2023?