Airbnb, Inc. (NASDAQ:ABNB) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

So those are just 3 things we’ve seen. I think what we’ve learned is like as we listen to customers, we adapt quickly, we can drive incremental growth. As far as what’s next, obviously, we don’t talk about too much before it will release. I will say though, next Wednesday, we are focused on some pretty big opportunities around reliability. So this is the last thing I’ll say about this. If you think about how big Airbnb is, for every person who stays in Airbnb, approximately 9 people every night stay in a hotel or about 9 bookings. The hotels are about to order magnitude bigger. And when you ask people, why do you book a hotel and not Airbnb, the number one reason they come up with is usually reliability that they know what they’re going to get before they book.

It kind of speaks to the strength and weakness of Airbnb that on the one hand, it’s one of a kind, other hand, that one-of-a-kindness offers valuability that not every person wants. And so next week, we’re going to have some new offerings that I think will make a pretty big in this. So that’s what I can say. I think I’m pretty optimistic about what you’ll see next week. And of course, we’re already working on stuff for next May and next October releases as well. So hopefully, stay tuned.

David Stephenson: And then in terms of the guidance, Brian, for the fourth quarter, we have our revenue guidance between $2.13 billion and $2.17 billion. So that’s revenue growth between 12% and 14%. And remember that in Q3, our revenue growth, excluding the impact of foreign exchange is about 14%. So — and we’re not anticipating the same level of FX impact on the fourth quarter. So broadly, our revenue growth is relatively comparable between Q4 and Q3. In terms of the nights guide, we’re just seeing some variability in our nights demand here early in the quarter and so we’re just being cautious with that guide. And so we’re not being specific on it but anticipate nights to be a few points below — nights growth to be a few points below Q3.

Operator: We’ll move to our next question from Lee Horowitz at Deutsche Bank.

Lee Horowitz: Can you maybe help us think about how you guys are tracking towards expectations on occupancy or utilization moving forward? As you guys extend beyond the core into newer markets, do those markets come with occupancy or utilization headwinds that we should be thinking about? And holistically, how you guys think about how occupancy or utilization may track next year? And then, maybe just one high level one. Sticking beyond the current cycle, we’ve seen a lot of other remote travel models, sort of hit this low teens to high single-digit growth rate and decelerate from there or not be able to reaccelerate their business as a meaningful like. Can you maybe take a step back and help us better understand how you think that maybe Airbnb may be a little bit different than prior ratios that we’ve seen and could perhaps sustain sort of that double-digit revenue cadence over a longer period of time than what we’re used to in the market.

Brian Chesky: Yes. Yes, you start with occupancy and I’ll take the second question.

David Stephenson: In terms of occupancy, we’ve actually seen it be pretty stable in terms of kind of on a global basis. I mean, if you actually step back, you got to remember that the vast majority of our hosts on Airbnb are individual houses. They’re not looking to drive 100% occupancy of all their listings. And what they want to do is earn enough money to usually hit some certain amount of financial goals. So as we continue to grow our inventory, we’re continuing to see strong occupancy levels overall. Clearly, we grew our inventory at 19% which is ahead of kind of revenue growth in the current period. But if you actually step back and look over like a 4-year period, go back all the way to 2019, the growth in our overall listings have actually been relatively similar to our overall growth in night.

So that occupancy over an extended time period tends to be fairly stable while in any short-term time period, it can have a little bit more volatility. But overall, again, we don’t focus on occupancy as a primary driver, we monitor it on local by local because what really matters is that we have great available listings in a specific market on a specific date.

Brian Chesky: Lee, I’ll take your second question. Yes, I think that — as I said before, I think we’re only scratching the surface to how this company becomes. And I absolutely think that we can get to really solid double-digit revenue growth for many, many years to come. And there’s 3 things that I’d point out. The first is our core business. I think our core business could be significantly larger than it is today, even if we didn’t do anything new. And the reason I believe this is the following: I believe that almost every single person who stays in a hotel could stay in Airbnb is, number one, they knew about all the benefits of Airbnb and number two, we made sure that our service was sufficiently reliable to be an alternative.

So let me start with those 2. We’ve done recently a new marketing campaign that’s called “Airbnb it”. And it basically contrast the benefits of the Airbnb versus the hotel. And based on our research, one of the things we’ve noticed is that a lot of people stay in hotels don’t understand some of the unique benefits of staying in Airbnb and why it is better for certain types of trips. And one type of trip that Airbnb is almost always better is when you’re traveling with 3 or more people. If you’re traveling with a family or traveling with a group, why do you want to stay in different rooms versus — different room separated. We’re having to stay at the same time. And then the only place you can meet in these crowded lobbies when you can get a whole home all to yourself.

So this is — we’ve been running these digital campaigns. It’s the highest performing digital campaign we’ve ever done. And this is going to be the basis for a new — major new marketing campaign next year. Additional to that, as I mentioned before, if we just keep focusing on reliability, making sure that when you book, you know what you’re going to get and this is ever a problem, you have an excellent customer service that is nearly as good as a front desk or as good as a front desk then I think there could be in the years to come a tipping point where many people could choose Airbnb. So that’s just our core business. Next is international. Even though we’re in 220 countries in the region, there’s only a couple of countries where we even have penetration at rivals of United States.

And those countries are Canada, Australia and France. After that, U.K. a little bit, it really starts to tip down. And so we have like massive, massive opportunity and just by bringing Airbnb’s playbook to these other countries. Obviously, Germany but not just Germany, like actually the entirety of Northern Europe, Eastern Europe and even Italy and Spain, basically every country but France and U.K., there are at a step change lower penetration. Latin America is a completely new market for us, emerging. Asia Pacific, I would argue it’s a completely new market. We can be adding huge amounts of growth just by our expansion playbook. And then finally, yes, I mean I would say just on new products and services, though we’re not disclosing anything that we’re doing new right now, here’s what I’d say.

I think the biggest strength I have as a CEO is not driving profitability even though we’ve done a really good job. I think it is literally inventing new products and services. That’s why we’ve hired so many great technologists, designers and I think this is going to be a sweet spot for us. We’re obviously not going to talk about new things before we ship them but twice a year, every May and every November — October, November, we’re going to be hopefully, putting out going forward new ideas that I hope really increase the addressable market for Airbnb. And I think that we can do much more than just short-term housing. But again, I think short-term housing is still a huge opportunity for us.

Operator: We’ll go to our next question from Doug Anmuth at JPMorgan.

Douglas Anmuth: First, you caught up the greater volatility in early 4Q. Just curious if you have any view of whether that’s more macro driven or geopolitical and then curious if you have a sense of kind of visibility and any kind of bookings into 2024 and perhaps maybe how that visibility compares now versus a year ago?