Air Transport Services Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:ATSG) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Helane Becker: Okay, that’s great to hear. The other question I had was I think Mas returned three aircraft to you recently. Is that included in the numbers that you gave us for returned aircraft, a? And b, since some of your issues seem to be related to some of your newer international customers, do you have — and I don’t mean to be nasty about this. But do you really have the expertise to grow beyond your core business? Or do you need to bring in more talent to be able to assess risk so that you don’t get a lot of aircraft back when market turns.

Mike Berger: Yes. So let me address the Mas situation, the Mas piece first. To be clear, they haven’t to date returned any aircraft. And in fact, they were actually scheduled to take an additional aircraft as recently as a short time ago. So we fully expect them to honor their commitments to the leases. And that’s been our communication to them. In regards to the international expansion, we’ve talked about that international growth for some time now. And then when we look out to the future growth of the industry and see where that growth is going to come from, clearly all the data suggests very strongly it’s going to come very well from Southeast Asia, East Asia, Central Asia and across other parts of the world. And that’s where we’ve been focused on.

In regards to the talent piece of it, that’s really an excellent question. We’ve had a lot of discussions internally about that. We’re building up that component of our CAM business to ensure that we address that. You may have heard or remember that we opened up the Irish entity last year. And we really have a big focus now of hiring some folks within the next 6 months or so that will be based outside the U.S. to address some of those concerns that you just mentioned. But make no mistake about it, a big part of our future is international. And we are a global organization, and we’re looking forward to that growth going forward.

Helane Becker: Okay, that’s very helpful. And then for my last question, to your point about Investor Day, which was September 27, being sure of what you were seeing in the business, I mean, how — I don’t mean to be stupid. But how can that be? How can you not know that you were missing the quarter that close to the end of the quarter? I mean, I know that you’re going to close the books after September 30. But things couldn’t have just fallen apart in 3 days. To your point, you were seeing the decline in the business, and you talked about it during Investor Day about being aware of what was going on. We saw — we had heard from FedEx late August. We knew that UPS had issues. But how did you not like figure out that things were not that robust? And then when you did, how could you not have [indiscernible] Street prior to last night?

Quint Turner: Well, Helane, this is Quint. I mean the — in terms of the quarter, we started out ahead of plan in July. And August was a bit worse. But we were not materially away from plan at the end of August. And truly, in September, we had a — as we mentioned in our press release, we had some service challenges with Omni. They had a very atypical quarter in terms of service delays. And that can and did lead to a lot of cost overrun in the travel area as well as the flight crew and over time. And that was — in terms of the third quarter, I’m not talking about the second half guidance, but just the third quarter, that was a significant downturn in their September results. And that — we did not have that visibility certainly at Investor Day.

The other source of the third quarter miss was primarily CAM. And CAM, as we’ve said in prior quarters, one of the things they are working through is the disposition of some 767-200s that have come back. And they’re selling some of those aircraft. And those sales were being worked and anticipated to be done by the end of the quarter, in fact, right up until the very last day. And in some cases, of course, you’re relying on the buyer and the other party to carry through with the transaction. And they’re still working towards those transactions. But the timing of getting those executed did not occur during the quarter. And that was a — I know that was over a $5 million CAM item just in the third quarter. So we had truly a lot of the deterioration in the third quarter occurred late in the quarter.

And we did not have that visibility at the time. And we, of course, mentioned in the earnings release, the Israeli conflict, assessment of some customer news that we received in October, all that occurred subsequent to the quarter, which impacted our second half guidance that was not known to us at the end of September. So I don’t know if that — I know it’s quite a change, and I understand the question. But truly, there were a lot of developments subsequent to Investor Day, which impacts our guidance.

Joe Hete: Helane, this is Joe. Obviously, that’s a question that myself and the rest of the Board members have asked a number of times in terms of how could we go out at that point in time. And while there’s reasons for all of it, we don’t find it acceptable. And as Mike noted in his comments that it was more difficult for us to have to make that kind of news to the market as opposed to you hearing it. So rest assured that, that is at the top of the list of getting back in terms of where the numbers we put out are credible to the market and not something that you have to be — to question going forward.

Helane Becker : Well, yes, I mean, I think the other thing, Joe, you might want to think about is how everybody reports up to you so that you don’t get surprised and the Board doesn’t get surprised at the end of a quarter like this. Because your stock is down 25%. So you’ve got a lot of rebuilding to do just from a credibility perspective in the market going forward. It’s not going to be easy to get that 25% back.

Joe Hete: No, it’s not. It’s one of those things, like I said, that’s at the top of my list of things to focus on, Helane. That’s point number one.

Operator: And our next question comes from Christopher Stathoulopoulos with Susquehanna Financial Group.

Christopher Stathoulopoulos: So Joe, your comments around growth more difficult to achieve, mike’s comments around what sounded as point to the challenges within air cargo, I’m just — I’m still having difficulty sort of parsing out what’s temporary and what’s going to persist here. How much of — I understand perhaps what happened with the second half, but essentially now we have a double guide-down with 2024 guidance at risk. So how much of this is kind of cyclical slowing here within air cargo? You talk about some international wings perhaps slowing. What’s operational? Are we having issues here with pilot attrition? Is it something else? Is it weather, geopolitical, supply chain? You spoke to IAI. I just want to understand, of course — and then within CAM, rising interest rates, depreciation, we all understand that.

But just if you could help kind of put it into buckets here. Because there’s a lot obvious here to digest. But the magnitude of this miss and what is being viewed as two guide-downs is significant, so if you could help just sort of frame the moving parts.

Joe Hete: Yes. Before I turn it over to other members of the team, obviously, I think it kind of falls under the category of all of the above are the things you listed out there. I mean, it’s no secret that the macroeconomic conditions around the globe are more challenging these days. And as we have said in the past, our customers are the Amazons and DHLs of the world. So as you see decreasing cargo volumes around the globe, that’s going to have a trickle-down effect to some of our lease customers. But as I think Quint noted in his remarks or Mike, if you look at our core cargo business with the Amazons and DHLs of the world, that portion of it is pretty stable. So with that as a backdrop, you can see that if you’ve got the smaller operators around the globe to support them and conditions are not really good from a total macro perspective, then that’s going to have that trickle-down effect. So with that, I’ll turn it over to Mike and Quint and Paul to further comment.