Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (ANF): This Indicator Predicted Today’s Crash. Did You Listen?

Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (NYSE:ANF) has brand loyalty going for it, but today is a disaster. Shares are down a whopping 20% pre-market. What if we told you there was one indicator that predicted this crash?

At the moment, there are a multitude of metrics investors can use to analyze the equity markets. A pair of the most useful are hedge fund and insider trading sentiment. At Insider Monkey, our research analyses have shown that, historically, those who follow the top picks of the best investment managers can trounce the S&P 500 by a solid amount (see just how much).

Just as necessary, optimistic insider trading sentiment is a second way to analyze the stock market universe. There are lots of reasons for a bullish insider to downsize shares of his or her company, but only one, very obvious reason why they would initiate a purchase. Various empirical studies have demonstrated the impressive potential of this tactic if “monkeys” know where to look (learn more here).

Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (NYSE:ANF)

Keeping this in mind, it’s important to discuss the latest info for Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (NYSE:ANF).

What have hedge funds been doing with Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (NYSE:ANF)?

At Q2’s end, a total of 31 of the hedge funds we track held long positions in this stock, a change of -6% from the first quarter. With hedgies’ capital changing hands, there exists an “upper tier” of noteworthy hedge fund managers who were increasing their stakes considerably.

When using filings from the hedgies we track, Adage Capital Management, managed by Phill Gross and Robert Atchinson, holds the biggest position in Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (NYSE:ANF). Adage Capital Management has a $83.6 million position in the stock, comprising 0.3% of its 13F portfolio. Sitting at the No. 2 spot is Ken Griffin of Citadel Investment Group, with a $24.2 million position; less than 0.1%% of its 13F portfolio is allocated to the company. Some other hedge funds that are bullish include Dmitry Balyasny’s Balyasny Asset Management, David Keidan’s Buckingham Capital Management and Israel Englander’s Millennium Management.

Since Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (NYSE:ANF) has experienced declining interest from the entirety of the hedge funds we track, it’s safe to say that there exists a select few funds who sold off their full holdings last quarter. Interestingly, Sean Cullinan’s Point State Capital dumped the largest position of the “upper crust” of funds we monitor, worth an estimated $47.7 million in call options.. Alexander Mitchell’s fund, Scopus Asset Management, also dumped its call options., about $27.7 million worth. These bearish behaviors are important to note, as aggregate hedge fund interest was cut by 2 funds last quarter.

What have insiders been doing with Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (NYSE:ANF)?

Insider buying is at its handiest when the primary stock in question has seen transactions within the past half-year. Over the last six-month time period, Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (NYSE:ANF) has experienced 1 unique insiders buying, and 4 insider sales (see the details of insider trades here).

We’ll check out the relationship between both of these indicators in other stocks similar to Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (NYSE:ANF). These stocks are Foot Locker, Inc. (NYSE:FL), Chico’s FAS, Inc. (NYSE:CHS), DSW Inc. (NYSE:DSW), Ascena Retail Group Inc (NASDAQ:ASNA), and American Eagle Outfitters (NYSE:AEO). This group of stocks are the members of the apparel stores industry and their market caps match ANF’s market cap.