Orbitz Worldwide, Inc. (NYSE:OWW)
I hope you’re sitting down, because what I have to tell you may shock you: Orbitz Worldwide, Inc. (NYSE:OWW) shares have nearly doubled in just the past month! At first that might not be hard to believe, considering how strong travel agency companies have performed globally, until you take a closer look at Orbitz’s bottom-line figures.
Orbitz Worldwide, Inc. (NYSE:OWW) reported its fourth-quarter results on Valentine’s Day, surprising the Street with a gigantic goodwill and impairment charge of $321.2 million, or an adjusted profit of $0.06, excluding the charge. That still wasn’t enough to top expectations that had called for Orbitz to earn $0.07 and marked yet another disappointment for the online travel booking company. Yet shares have soared as revenue topped estimates and Orbitz itself predicted a rebound in North American travel bookings. As for me, I think this is a perfect opportunity to bet against Orbitz.
Even though I’m a regular Orbitz customer, Orbitz Worldwide, Inc. (NYSE:OWW) has little to no exposure outside North America. Compare that with Priceline.com Inc. (NASDAQ:PCLN) , which reported just two weeks later that $5.5 billion of its $6.6 billion in gross bookings was generated outside the United States. That’s truly phenomenal and demonstrates the global reach of the Priceline name, even with austerity measures in place throughout much of Europe. With consumers battening down the hatches as more taxes get taken out of their paychecks, I simply don’t see how Orbitz Worldwide, Inc. (NYSE:OWW), which is intricately tied to the domestic booking market, is going to continue this momentum.
Hyperion Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ:HPTX)
Sorry, Hyperion Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ:HPTX) shareholders, but the allure of urea cycle disorder drug Ravicti wore off on me quite a while ago.
It was an interesting road to approval for Hyperion, which soared on word that the Food and Drug Administration needed more time to work on “labeling and post-marketing requirements” in late January for Ravicti. Just two weeks after its original PDUFA date, the FDA approved Ravicti and its share price rallied even more. Now, Hyperion Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ:HPTX) has practically doubled from where it was before the Ravicti news, yet peak sales estimates of the drug haven’t changed a bit.
I admit it’s a bit difficult to get a good gauge on Ravicti’s long-term potential, because Hyperion hasn’t even commented on what it expects out of the drug. However, the few analyst estimates that do exist point toward peak sales in the urea cycle disorder market of around $100 million. With Hyperion Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ:HPTX) closing yesterday at a valuation of $392 million, investors have placed a multiple on the stock of nearly four times peak sales — clearly too much, in my opinion. Assuming Ravicti launches flawlessly, perhaps this valuation will stick around for a few more months, but I see this as a sub-$20 stock unless something else comes out of the pipeline.
The article 3 Stocks to Get on Your Watchlist originally appeared on Fool.com.
Fool contributor Sean Williams has no material interest in any companies mentioned in this article. He’s a total nerd when it comes to making lists. You can follow him on CAPS under the screen name TMFUltraLong, track every pick he makes under the screen name TrackUltraLong, and check him out on Twitter, where he goes by the handle @TMFUltraLong.The Motley Fool owns shares of, and recommends, priceline.com.
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