In this article, we will look into the 22 countries most likely to survive climate change. If you want to skip our detailed analysis, you can go directly to the 5 Countries Most Likely To Survive Climate Change.
Global Climate Change Outlook
Climate change is a major threat affecting vulnerable communities all over the world. In 2023, the global temperature reached 14.98°C according to the ERA5 dataset of C3S. 2023 was recorded as the warmest calendar year in history since 1850. The temperature was 1.48°C higher in 2023, compared to the 1850-1900 pre-industrial levels. Every month of the year reported higher temperature compared to the corresponding months of the previous years, since July.
According to the January climate report by NOAA, there is a 99% probability that 2024 will be one of the top 5 warmest years. However, there is a 22% chance it will be the absolute warmest year on record. January 2024 was the warmest compared to the corresponding month of the previous years. The global surface temperature in January was 1.27°C high, compared to the 12.2°C average of the 20th century. The record-high temperature rise continued for the 10th consecutive month. Temperatures were higher than the average across the Arctic, North America, South America, Central Russia, Australia, and most parts of Asia. The climate change report by IPCC states that global warming will surpass 1.5°C during the 21st century.
Transition Towards Clean Energy
At the 28th Climate Change Conference, COP28, many countries and big industrial giants made commitments to cut down the global fossil fuel consumption. A fund of $11 billion was launched to support climate-vulnerable countries. Over 120 countries made commitments to triple the amount of clean energy and double the energy efficiency over the next decade. Over 140 countries committed to combat GHG emissions from food systems and include it in their mitigation planning for climate change. Overall, many strong pledges were made to transition away from fossil fuels at COP28.
On January 23, Reuters reported that the European Union is set to establish a new target to reduce its GHG emissions by 90% compared to 1990 emissions levels, by 2040. This can be achieved by a substantial reduction in fossil fuel consumption, with a decline of 80% by 2040. The electricity sector in the region would be required to become CO2-free by 2040. The use of oil and gas would be restricted to only some sectors and coal would have to be phased out completely to reach the emission reduction target. These targets can be met by an enormous estimated investment of 1.2 trillion euros annually. This goal is expected to reduce the fossil fuel exports of Europe by $3.03 trillion from 2031 to 2050, compared to the 2011-2020 yearly average.
Clean Energy Sector
NextEra Energy, Inc. (NYSE:NEE), Iberdrola, S.A. (OTC:IBDRY), and Ørsted A/S (OTC:DNNGY) are some of the companies contributing to the clean energy transition globally.
NextEra Energy, Inc. (NYSE:NEE) is a leading renewable energy company. On February 8, the company announced that its principal subsidiary, Florida Power & Light Company (FPL) has concluded the construction of its clean hydrogen pilot facility, Cavendish NextGen Hydrogen Hub. The project will investigate the use and feasibility of clean hydrogen as a fuel source. The new facility uses solar power to generate electricity, which will then be used to produce hydrogen fuel. This signifies NextEra Energy, Inc.’s (NYSE:NEE) commitment to the clean energy transition.
Iberdrola, S.A. (OTC:IBDRY) is an electric utility and renewable energy company. On February 27, the company announced that it had signed a deal to construct a large solar plant in Sicily, Italy. The project, called Fenix will provide power to over 140,00o households and will be the largest project in the country. Moreover, it will help avoid 119,000 tonnes of CO2 emissions. This new project of Iberdrola, S.A. (OTC:IBDRY) will solidify its position in the Italian market and help the country reach its clean energy goals.
Ørsted A/S (OTC:DNNGY) is a leading energy company in Europe. On February 22, the company announced that it had partnered with Incheon, South Korea, to construct an offshore wind energy industry. The city will provide administrative support to Ørsted A/S (OTC:DNNGY) to utilize its 1.6GW offshore wind project experience. This partnership pledges to develop a local wind energy industry in the city, benefitting the community and companies in the region.
Now, let’s have a look at the 22 countries most likely to survive climate change.
Methodology
To compile our list of the 22 countries most likely to survive climate change, we utilized the ND-GAIN Country Index. The index evaluates the preparedness of a country against climate change through two key dimensions, vulnerability and readiness. Vulnerability assesses a country’s exposure, sensitivity, and ability to adapt to climate change. Whereas, readiness evaluates its capacity to convert investments into impactful actions to improve its resilience by considering economic, social, and governance factors. We have used the GDP-adjusted ND-GAIN scores of countries to rank the 22 countries most likely to survive climate change with the rationale that countries with high climate resilience and less vulnerability are most likely to mitigate and adapt to climate crises and survive climate change. Countries appear in ascending order of their ND-GAIN scores on our list.
22 Countries Most Likely To Survive Climate Change
22. Sweden
ND-GAIN Score (2021): 6.2
Sweden is ranked among the 22 countries most likely to survive climate change. The country had an ND-GAIN score of 6.2 in 2021. Sweden is among the least vulnerable countries to climate change and is one of the top climate-ready countries, according to the ND-GAIN Index.
21. Tunisia
ND-GAIN Score (2021): 6.4
Tunisia is ranked 21st on our list. In 2021, the country had an ND-GAIN score of 6.4. According to the index, Tunisia is the 116th most vulnerable country and 86th most ready country, placing it in the lower right quadrant of the ND-GAIN matrix. This means that Tunisia is well-positioned to adapt to climate change despite the persisting challenges.
20. Kazakhstan
ND-GAIN Score (2021): 6.5
Kazakhstan ranks 20th on our list. The country is ranked 164th on the vulnerability index and is the 51st most ready country to adapt to climate change. The total GDP-adjusted ND-GAIN score of Kazakhstan was 6.5 in 2021.
19. Cape Verde
ND-GAIN Score (2021): 6.6
Ranked 19th on our list, Cape Verde is one of the countries that are likely to survive climate change due to its low vulnerability and high readiness against climate change. In 2021, the overall score of the country was 6.6
18. Portugal
ND-GAIN Score (2021): 6.7
Portugal is ranked 19th on our list of the 22 countries most likely to survive climate change. The country had an ND-GAIN score of 6.7 in 2021. The country has low vulnerability and is ranked 165th on the vulnerability index.
17. Dominica
ND-GAIN Score (2021): 6.9
Dominica ranks 17th on our list. It has a relatively high vulnerability score and a high readiness score. The country needs to amplify its efforts to adapt to climate change. The total GDP-adjusted ND-GAIN score of the country was 6.9 in 2021.
16. Uzbekistan
ND-GAIN Score (2021): 6.9
Uzbekistan is ranked 16th on our list. In 2021, the country had an ND-GAIN score of 6.9. According to the index, it is the 143rd most vulnerable country and 97th most ready country. It is placed in the lower right quadrant of the ND-GAIN matrix which means that it is poised to adapt to climate change despite the persisting challenges.
15. Grenada
ND-GAIN Score (2021): 7.0
Ranked 15th on our list, Grenada is one of the countries that are likely to survive climate change due to its low vulnerability and high preparedness against climate change. In 2021, the overall score of the country was 7. It is the 117th most vulnerable country according to the ND-GAIN index.
14. Morocco
ND-GAIN Score (2021): 7.0
Morocco ranks 14th on our list. It has low vulnerability and high readiness against climate change. However, the country needs to intensify its measures to acclimate to climate change. The total GDP-adjusted ND-GAIN score of the country was 7 in 2021. The country is the 121st most vulnerable country.
13. Japan
ND-GAIN Score (2021): 7.0
Japan is ranked among the 22 countries most likely to survive climate change. In 2021, the country had an ND-GAIN score of 7. The country has a low vulnerability score and is the 13th most ready country to adapt to climate change.
12. Chile
ND-GAIN Score (2021): 7.1
Chile ranks 12th on our list. The country has a low vulnerability to climate change. The total GDP-adjusted ND-GAIN score of the country was 7.1 in 2021.
11. Mongolia
ND-GAIN Score (2021): 7.2
Mongolia is ranked 11th on our list. In 2021, the country had an ND-GAIN score of 7.2. According to the index, it is the 126th most vulnerable country and the 74th most ready country, placing it in the lower right quadrant of the ND-GAIN matrix. This means that it has high preparedness against the climate challenges faced by the country.
10. Belarus
ND-GAIN Score (2021): 7.4
Ranked 10th on our list, Belarus is one of the countries that are likely to survive climate change due to its low vulnerability and high readiness against climate change. In 2021, the overall score of the country was 7.4.
9. South Korea
ND-GAIN Score (2021): 7.5
South Korea ranks 9th on our list. The country is ranked 134th on the vulnerability index and is the 6th most ready country to adapt to climate change. The total GDP-adjusted ND-GAIN score of the country was 7.5 in 2021.
8. United Kingdom
ND-GAIN Score (2021): 8.1
The United Kingdom is ranked among the 22 countries most likely to survive climate change. The country had an ND-GAIN score of 8.1 in 2021.
7. China
ND-GAIN Score (2021): 8.8
China ranks 7th on our list. The country is one of the least vulnerable countries to climate change. The total GDP-adjusted ND-GAIN score of the country was 8.8 in 2021.
6. Armenia
ND-GAIN Score (2021): 8.8
Armenia is ranked 6th on our list of the 22 countries most likely to survive climate change. The country had an ND-GAIN score of 8.8. According to the index, it is the 138th most vulnerable country to climate change.
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Disclosure: None. 22 Countries Most Likely To Survive Climate Change is originally published on Insider Monkey.
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