Third Point recently released its Q2 2020 Investor Letter, a copy of which you can download here. The fund posted a return of 10.8% for the quarter, underperforming its benchmark, the S&P 500 Index which returned 20.5% in the same quarter. You should check out Third Point’s top 5 stock picks for investors to buy right now, which could be the biggest winners of the stock market crash.
In the said letter, Third Point spoke about Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA) and JD.Com Inc (NASDAQ:JD) stocks. Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA) and JD.Com Inc (NASDAQ:JD) are Chinese e-commerce stocks. Year-to-date, Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA) stock gained 16.6% and on August 7th it had a closing price of $252.10. Year-to-date, JD.Com Inc (NASDAQ:JD) stock gained 73.0% and on August 7th it had a closing price of $62.06. Here is what Third Point said:
“During the quarter, we took advantage of jitters about China’s relationships with Hong Kong and the U.S. that created an air pocket in trading of Chinese‐related shares to establish new positions in e‐commerce leaders Alibaba and JD.com. As we have articulated in prior letters3, our outlook for Alibaba and the broader Chinese e‐commerce market is bright. We believe online gross merchandise value (“GMV”) will grow at a mid‐teens CAGR over the next five years, propelled by both (1) rising consumption per capita, as the Chinese retail market is equal in size to the U.S. despite four times as many consumers, and (2)increased penetration of retail by online, a trend which we believe has been structurally accelerated by the COVID‐ 19 pandemic.
As the e‐commerce market matures, we believe Alibaba & JD will leverage scale and growing repositories of transaction data to increase monetization of their platforms through targeted advertising to improve revenue yields (revenues as a percentage of GMV) from a starting point of less than 4% today. As a point of comparison, brick‐and‐mortar retail store rent expenses in China are greater than 10% of sales on average, which provides a significant umbrella for online marketplaces to take a greater share of GMV through a combination of commission and advertising spending as online retailer cost structures converge with brick‐ and‐mortar retail.
Finally, we continue to be excited about the latent potential in some of Alibaba’s businesses beyond the core e‐commerce marketplaces – particularly the cloud computing business, Aliyun. China’s cloud computing industry remains nascent but is growing nearly 3x faster than its developed market counterparts through a combination of rising IT intensity, rapid cloud penetration, and a gradual moderation in software piracy. Within that market, Aliyun is increasingly dominant (with nearly 50% market share) and will generate dramatic profit growth as margins expand with scale. As one reference point, Aliyun today resembles Amazon’s AWS business five years ago; this is an encouraging comparison given that today, AWS’ operating profits (and estimated enterprise value) exceed Alibaba’s business in its entirety. Ant Financial – in which Alibaba holds a ~30% stake that is worth roughly $70 billion – has announced its intention to go public later this year. Alibaba shares will benefit further should they become accessible to mainland Chinese investors through inclusion in the Southbound Connect.”
In Q1 2020, the number of bullish hedge fund positions on Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA) stock decreased by about 2% from the previous quarter (see the chart here), so a number of other hedge fund managers don’t seem to agree with Alibaba’s growth potential.
In Q1 2020, the number of bullish hedge fund positions on JD.Com Inc (NASDAQ:JD) stock increased by about 43% from the previous quarter (see the chart here), so a number of other hedge fund managers seem to agree with JD’s growth potential.
The top 10 stocks among hedge funds returned 185% since the end of 2014 and outperformed the S&P 500 Index ETFs by more than 109 percentage points. We know it sounds unbelievable. You have been dismissing our articles about top hedge fund stocks mostly because you were fed biased information by other media outlets about hedge funds’ poor performance. You could have doubled the size of your nest egg by investing in the top hedge fund stocks instead of dumb S&P 500 ETFs. Below you can watch our video about the top 5 hedge fund stocks right now. All of these stocks had positive returns in 2020.
Video: Top 5 Stocks Among Hedge Funds
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