I hate to say this but, I told you so. On the morning of February 27th I published an article with the title “Recession is Imminent: We Need A Travel Ban NOW!”. I wanted to make sure you understand the severity of the situation; hence the bold title.
This was the first time I made a recession call since March 2008. I also told you short the market and buy Treasury bonds in the same article. If you had shorted the market and bought Treasury bonds instead of investing in index funds, your portfolio would have been 25% bigger now.
I have a PhD in financial economics. I am not a journalist who is working for a measly salary. Journalists won’t give you timely, accurate analysis of the financial markets. News sites in general don’t make enough money from the advertisements in articles. At Insider Monkey, we have a subscription service that really pays for all of our expenses. So, please subscribe to our monthly newsletter if you care about staying one step ahead of the markets.
I completed my coronavirus analysis on February 25th and sent an email alert to our premium subscribers on February 26th. I published a summary of that email alert on February 27th. This was 3 weeks ago, but it feels like months ago.
At the time of my analysis America didn’t have a single coronavirus death. We also weren’t aware of any community transmissions of the new coronavirus. On February 26th at a press briefing Trump was asked the following question:
“Q: Just to follow up on Zeke’s question, can you clarify: Are you considering restricting travel to and from South Korea, Italy, and other countries that have been affected by this?
THE PRESIDENT: At a right time, we may do that. Right now, it’s not the right time.”
That was a missed opportunity to take decisive action to slow down the spread of the coronavirus. Every day the United States receives 200,000 international travelers. Donald Trump allowed dozens of infected people travel from Europe into the United States and plant the seeds of coronavirus in every major metropolitan area in America. That’s why I blame Trump for the severity of the incoming coronavirus recession. Three weeks ago, we didn’t have any local coronavirus cases. Today, we identified 4661 cases. Three days ago, we identified fewer than 2200 cases.
Let’s start with our predictions:
Prediction 1: On March 20th, we will report more than 10,000 coronavirus cases.