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What Effect Will Last Night’s Developments Have On These Stocks?

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As has been the case for the past few weeks, the equity markets on Monday experienced a relatively volatile session. However, there were  three companies whose stocks were relatively calm during the trading hours, but made big moves after the market closed. In this article we are going to take a closer look at the reasons why these stocks had noteworthy movements during the after-hours session yesterday and try to figure out if those reasons could have a meaningful impact on their respective stocks today and in the near future.

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First up is the stock of Minnesota-based concentrated potash manufacturer Mosaic Co (NYSE:MOS). After losing 7.5% in the final three trading sessions of last week, the stock again took a beating yesterday in the after-hours session after Mosaic Co (NYSE:MOS) lowered its sales outlook, announcing that it will cut its potash production and maintain the pace of its reduced phosphate output. For the third quarter, the company now expects potash volumes to be in the bottom half of the 1.6 million-to-2.0 million tonnes guidance range it had provided earlier. Excluding the rapid rise and fall during the first three months of the year, the stock of Mosaic Co (NYSE:MOS) remained range-bound throughout much of the year, but since August has drifted lower and currently trades with a year-to-date loss of more than 20%. Eight out of the ten largest shareholders of the company among the funds we track either initiated their stake in it during the April-June period or increased their stake in it during that period. Phill Gross and Robert Atchinson‘s Adage Capital Management continued to remain the largest shareholder of the company by nearly doubling its stake to almost 4.0 million shares during the second quarter.

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We track hedge funds and prominent investors because our research has shown that historically their stock picks delivered superior risk-adjusted returns. This is especially true in the small-cap space. The 50 most popular large-cap stocks among hedge funds had a monthly alpha of about six basis points per month between 1999 and 2012; however the 15 most popular small-cap stocks delivered a monthly alpha of 80 basis points during the same period. This means investors would have generated ten percentage points of alpha per year simply by imitating hedge funds’ top 15 small-cap ideas. We have been tracking the performance of these stocks since the end of August 2012 in real time and these stocks beat the market by over 60 percentage points (118% return vs. S&P 500’s 57.6% gain) over the last 36 months (see the details here).

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