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Time To Get Drunk On Dividends? – Diageo plc (ADR) (DEO), Anheuser-Busch InBev NV (ADR) (BUD), Brown-Forman Corporation (BF.B)

Published on March 18, 2013 at 3:50 pm by The Motley Fool in News
With the Fed planning to keep rates at historical lows through 2015 and Treasuries barely covering inflation, I’m led to search for yield in unique places. This includes turning to beer and liquor to solve my problems. There is no denying that alcoholic beverages are a favorite in tough economic times, helping us drown our sorrows, but they are also popular in a booming economy, being a fundamental part of helping us enjoy our successes. There are a couple of the stocks below that I believe are growth and income plays.

Liquor Stocks

My top pick in the liquor industry is Diageo plc (ADR) (NYSE: DEO), which has a number of lower-end, reasonably priced choices, while also catering to the high-end consumers. Key brands for the London-based company include Smirnoff, Johnnie Walker, Captain Morgan, Tanqueray, Crown Royal and Guinness. Smirnoff is its leading brand by volume, and Johnnie Walker the leader by value. Last quarter, Diageo posted organic revenues growth of 5%, along with solid performance in Africa. Latin America is also performing well, where volume for the region was up 2% year over year, and the company hopes to further penetrate emerging markets. It has also acquired over 50% of India’s largest spirits company, United Spirits Ltd. The positive of this acquisition is the fact that India is the world’s most populous country.

The big draw to Diageo plc (ADR) (NYSE: DEO) is not just its 2.4% dividend yield, but its valuation and industry-leading operating margin. Diageo’s trailing twelve month operating margin is 34%, compared to top peer Beam’s 25% (see how Diageo stacks up head to head versus Beam).

BEAM Inc (NYSE: BEAM) is the world’s fourth largest premium spirits company, and the second largest in the United States. Top brands include Jim Beam (bourbon), Maker’s Mark (bourbon) and Courvoisier (cognac). One positive for BEAM Inc (NYSE: BEAM) is its geographically diverse revenue streams. Markets outside of North America make up around 44% of sales, with 22% derived from Europe, the Middle East and Africa, and another 22% from Asia and South America.

BEAM Inc (NYSE: BEAM)’s predecessor, Fortune Brands, helped position the company with a nice balance sheet. Fortune had sold off its golf business and spun off its home and security business in 2011, using the proceeds ($1.1 billion) to pay down debt. Although BEAM Inc (NYSE: BEAM) has the best balance sheet, with a long-term debt to equity ratio of 44%, compared to Brown-Forman Corporation (NYSE: BF.B) (69%) and Diageo plc (ADR) (NYSE: DEO) (99%), its valuation and recent performance make the company relatively unattractive. Last quarter’s results showed weakness, with EPS of $0.67 coming in below the $0.71 consensus estimates and below the $0.69 posted in the same quarter last year. However, billionaire Bill Ackman still has a large part of his hedge fund invested in Beam after his activist campaign at Fortune Brands (check out all of Akcman’s stocks).

Brown-Forman Corporation (NYSE: BF.B) is one of the leading producers and distributors of premium alcoholic beverages in the world. Key brands include Jack Daniel’s, Southern Comfort and Finlandia. Last quarter earnings came in at $0.80 per share, up 10% year over year, with the big news being upgraded 2013 guidance. Its outlook for 2013 now includes full year EPS in the range of  $2.58 to $2.70, up from its earlier guidance of $2.40 to $2.67. Also, the company raised its forecast for operating income growth to the low-double-digits from high-single-digit growth. The company is building a new manufacturing facility in Alabama to help meet improved demand for Jack Daniel’s whiskey barrels, while also strategically re-positioning its Japan distribution facility in an effort to better capture market share.
Although its dividend yield is rather low at 1.5%, Brown-Forman Corporation (NYSE: BF.B) has paid quarterly cash dividends consecutively for the past sixty-seven years, and has been increasing it for the last twenty-nine years. There are many positives for Brown-Forman, but the real hindrance for considering Brown as a top liquor stock is its “expensive” valuation and low dividend yield when compared to Diageo.
What about the beer makers?

Anheuser-Busch InBev NV (ADR) (NYSE:BUD) is the world’s largest brewer, and Molson Coors Brewing Company (NYSE: TAP) the fifth largest global brewer. In the beer category, I think Molson might well be the best pick given its valuation and balance sheet strength. Molson Coors Brewing Company (NYSE: TAP) is a result of the 2005 merger between Molson Inc. and Adolph Coors Co.
Recently quarter results showed that Anheuser’s earnings were down 5% year over year, despite revenue being up 8%. Forward guidance was also bleak for the company, as it expects weakness in its key market, Brazil. Anheuser is the market share leader in the country with 69% of the market. The big news of late for Anheuser-Busch InBev NV (ADR) (NYSE:BUD) includes its acquisition of the 50% of Modelo that it does not already own. The transaction woud establish Crown as a fully owned entity of Constellation, and provides Constellation with independent brewing operations, Modelo’s full profit stream from all United States sales and rights in perpetuity to the Modelo brands distributed by Crown in the United States.

Molson Coors Brewing Company (NYSE: TAP) also has just over half the long-term debt to equity ratio (43%) as Anheuser’s 95%. All-in-all, Molson has over sixty-five brands that include low-priced options and craft brews. The company has implemented various cost saving initiatives that include closing underperforming breweries to do away with inefficiencies  The company also has a synergy program named Resources for Growth Two, which has helped the company save $172 million over the last three years. Part of the Resources for Growth strategy includes combining its UK and Ireland business with its newly acquired Central Europe organization for a singe operating unit in Europe.

While consolidating certain underperforming assets, Molson Coors Brewing Company (NYSE: TAP) has also been upping it exposure to high growth markets. This includes acquiring Sharp’s Brewery and Doom Bar brands in 2011, which added the Modelo brands to its U.K. portfolio. Its acquisition of nine StarBev breweries in 2012 enhanced its portfolio with premium brands of StarBev and gave the company expansion opportunities to the emerging markets of the Czech Republic, Hungary, Romania, and Bulgaria. Molson Coors Brewing Company (NYSE: TAP) has also been a leader in returning capital to shareholders, having increased its dividend payment at a 15% compounded annual growth rate for the last five years (read more about this turnaround stock and others).

Dividends & Valuation

Diageo and Molson have the top dividend yields in the industry:
BEAM Inc  1.5%
Brown-Forman Corporation 1.5%
Diageo plc (ADR) 2.4%
Anheuser-Busch InBev NV (ADR) 1.6%
Molson Coors Brewing Company 2.6%
These two companies also have solid dividend payout ratios:
Beam 33%
Brown-Forman 42%
Diageo 42%
Anheuser-Busch 34%
Molson Coors 52%

As far as valuation goes, Diageo plc (ADR) (NYSE: DEO) is the cheapest liquor stock on a forward price to earnings basis, trading at 17 times, compared to BEAM Inc (NYSE: BEAM) (21 times) and Brown-Forman Corporation (NYSE: BF.B) (23 times). On the beer side, Anheuser-Busch InBev NV (ADR) (NYSE:BUD) trades at 18 times forward earnings, but Molson-Coors is the cheapest beer stock at only 11 times.
Don’t be fooled
It appears that both of the highest dividend yielding alcoholic beverage companies, Diageo and Molson-Coors, might also be two of the industry’s best picks. Both are the cheapest for their relative segments, and have been looking to tap the emerging markets for growth opportunities. Diageo plc (ADR) (NYSE: DEO) yields 2.4% and Molson 2.6%, while each have payout ratios of less than 55%.

The article Time To Get Drunk On Dividends? originally appeared on Fool.com and is written by Marshall Hargrave.

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