Letting Wal-Mart deal with the dollar stores
Kroger’s shift towards more upscale markets is also aimed at distancing itself from Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (NYSE:WMT),, which has been rolling out Wal-Mart Neighborhood Markets over the past few years. Wal-Mart Neighborhood Markets are much smaller than its namesake stores, focusing only on grocery items in stores between 30,000 to 50,000 square feet. Wal-Mart currently operates over 200 Neighborhood Market stores across the country, and plans to add 95 to 155 locations by January 2014.
Although it appears that Wal-Mart is going after Kroger with this strategy, I believe that its Neighborhood Markets are geared towards fending off dollar stores, such as Dollar General Corp. (NYSE:DG) and Dollar Tree, Inc. (NASDAQ:DLTR), which have been evolving from thrift stores into full discount grocers. Dollar stores have also been expanding into lower-income neighborhoods, where average shoppers pick their stores purely based on price and proximity, due to fuel costs. Last quarter, dollar stores posted strong gains across the board as the new format of “beefed up” dollar stores chipped away at Wal-Mart’s market share.
Therefore, Kroger realizes that the lower end of the market is already crowded enough, and adding more affluent shoppers is an attractive, margin-preserving alternative to fighting with Wal-Mart and the dollar stores for the dominance of lower-income neighborhoods.
A mutually beneficial deal
Harris Teeter has also come under pressure from Wal-Mart’s standalone grocery stores, as well as a fast growing regional competitor, Publix, which currently has 1,073 locations. Joining Kroger will improve the ability of both companies to remain competitive. Kroger shareholders agreed, sending the shares up nearly 3% on July 9 after the deal was announced. A closer look at the top and bottom line growth of Kroger, Harris Teeter, and its industry peers also backs this optimism.
Although Harris Teeter’s bottom line has slightly decreased over the past five years, it has held relatively steady as its revenue has consistently risen. Safeway Inc. (NYSE:SWY) has a more serious problem – it is facing tepid revenue growth, which could eventually drag down its bottom line if margins fall apart.
Lastly, SUPERVALU INC. (NYSE:SVU), which has been slimming down by selling off its Albertson’s, Acme, Shaw’s and Star Market chains, is having some serious trouble growing either earnings or revenue. Supervalu is currently unprofitable, reporting a loss of $0.14 in the most recent quarter, down from a profit of $0.38 per share in the prior year quarter. Revenue plunged 52.7% to $3.89 billion. In other words, the third-largest food retailer in the United States is still in serious trouble.
The Foolish Bottom Line
In closing, let’s compare Kroger’s value and growth fundamentals to Safeway and Supervalu to gauge if it is a worthy investment at current prices.
5-year PEG | Trailing P/E | Price to Sales (ttm) | Price to Book | Return on Equity | Debt to Equity | Dividend Yield | |
Kroger | 1.49 | 12.80 | 0.19 | 4.05 | 35.81% | 172.89 | 1.60% |
Safeway | 1.54 | 9.36 | 0.13 | 1.94 | 20.96% | 206.04 | 2.10% |
Supervalu | -2.17 | N/A | 0.10 | N/A | N/A | N/A (total debt $2.89 billion) | No div. |
Advantage | Kroger | Safeway | Supervalu | Safeway | Kroger | Kroger | Safeway |
Source: Yahoo Finance, 7/10/2013
Although Kroger and Safeway seem fairly matched, investors should remember that Kroger has been much better at growing its top and bottom lines than Safeway. With the addition of Harris Teeter, Kroger should be able to further widen the gap between itself and Safeway, as well as distance itself from Wal-Mart. Therefore, at current prices, Kroger looks like a solid, stable investment with robust financial metrics and solid plans for long-term growth.
The article Will This Grocer’s Upscale Investment Pay Off? originally appeared on Fool.com.
Leo Sun has no position in any stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool owns shares of Supervalu. Leo is a member of The Motley Fool Blog Network — entries represent the personal opinion of the blogger and are not formally edited.
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