Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. (SWK): Is This Stock the Perfect GARP Play for 2013?

There are three positive earnings drivers to look out for with Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. (NYSE:SWK), and if they all come together in 2013, then this stock has significant upside potential. It is a nice mix of value and growth.The company offers a nice mix of improving end markets, ongoing cost savings from synergies created via acquisition integration, and it has a strategic growth initiative in place in order to drive revenue growth and return on capital. In this article, I want to look at how these three facets are playing out so far this year.

End market prospects

The recent results were a mixed bag, as estimates were missed but the full year guidance for EPS and free cash flow was maintained at $5.40-$5.65 and $1 billion, respectively. The strength in its mix of business is undoubtedly coming from its construction and do-it-yourself (CDIY) segment and it is set to continue. Meanwhile, its security and industrial segments have more subdued prospects this year.

A breakdown of segmental profits in the quarter.

The results were superficially disappointing. Organic revenue declined 1% overall, and it was only the 4% contribution from acquisitions that caused the top line growth of 3%. Moreover, cash outflows were greater than expected in the quarter and its core CDIY segment saw flat revenue. It gets worse. Security revenue fell 1% on an organic basis as did industrial revenue. So, is this a story of declining organic growth and an over reliance on acquisitions? And where does the confidence to maintain full year guidance come from?

The 2013 guidance is for mid-single digit revenue growth in CDIY, and flat to low single digit growth for security and industrial, respectively. With regards to CDIY, there were three issues of which two look like they will be rectified in due course.

Firstly, there is a late start to the North American outdoor season which was primarily caused by the weather. Secondly, there has been some temporary weakness in Latin America due to a variety of reasons. Interestingly, Whirlpool Corporation (NYSE:WHR) said a similar thing about the region, and in particular with Brazil. Both of these companies are arguing that this is a temporary setback and Whirlpool Corporation (NYSE:WHR) shareholders should take heart from the positive trends expressed for Latin America in these results. Sequentially, things got better in Q1 and this gives confidence that Q2 will be better for both companies.

The third issue is — you guessed it — Europe, but investors need to recall that comparisons are likely to get easier going forward. Security’s exposure to Europe is worrying (and there was some temporary weakness in the Nordic regions), but an extra $15 million of cost synergies from the Niscayah acquistion are expected. This should help out margin growth. It’s a similar story with industrial where moderate U.S. growth is hopefully going to offset weaker conditions in Europe.