“Since its founding in 1980, Amgen (“the company”) has been a pioneer in the biotechnology industry, successfully discovering, developing, and marketing therapeutic agents that have meaningfully impacted human health. From 1989 to 2002, Amgen grew five revolutionary biologic drugs into billion dollar blockbuster products in oncology, nephrology, and inflammation. Today, Amgen is a $105 billion market cap company with annual revenues of nearly $20 billion and annual net income of over $5 billion.
Considering this track record, Amgen’s long‐term underperformance relative to its biotech peers is surprising. The company has a compelling mix of long‐duration, high‐margin mature products like Neulasta and Enbrel, and a number of exciting high growth assets, including recently launched blockbusters like Prolia and Xgeva along with innovative latestage pipeline assets like evolocumab. Yet, using nearly any valuation metric, the Company trades at a substantial discount to peers. Amgen even trades at a discount to the US pharmaceutical sector, despite superior revenue and earnings growth rates. Amgen’s current discount to fair valuation – and the lack of structural hurdles to closing this gap – make it an attractive investment opportunity. Third Point is now one of the company’s largest shareholders.
Amgen has all the hallmarks of a hidden value situation, one of our favorite investment themes. The company does not receive proper credit from investors for either the cash generative potential of its mature products or the coming financial impact of its growth assets. In the mature products segment, we believe revenues will be sustainable and
concerns about potential erosion are overstated. With respect to Amgen’s pipeline, we believe the market underappreciates how disruptive some of its new products will be. Our conviction about the company’s growth pipeline has been bolstered by our discussions with Third Point’s newly created Scientific and Medical Advisory Board (“SMAB”) led by renowned oncologist Dr. David Agus. Dr. Agus has helped us assemble a world‐class team
of scientists and physicians to assist in our evaluation of therapeutic companies and their clinical assets.
We believe the obscured fundamental value and investor skepticism that have led to Amgen’s valuation discount can be easily unlocked. Throughout our due diligence and discussions with sell‐side analysts and other investors, it became clear that the market has penalized Amgen for several key reasons: 1) its historical lack of R&D productivity; 2) more than a decade of flat operating margins; and 3) the suspension of its share repurchase program in 2013 following its $9 billion acquisition of Onyx Pharmaceuticals.”
Keeping this in mind, we’re going to analyze the key action encompassing Amgen, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMGN).
