Odanacatib has competition as well. Amgen, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMGN) has its own bone therapy drugs, Prolia and Xgeva, each of which are expected to succeed. Morningstar in May said that it expects Amgen, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMGN)’s osteoporosis and fracture-preventing drugs, respectively, to generate more than $3 billion in peak sales. There’s an opportunity for odanacatib to thrive alongside Amgen’s two drugs, but competition for the top spot in this niche will be a battle to watch.
Singulair and odanacatib aren’t Merck’s only drugs in the pipeline. Hepatitis-C therapy vaneprevir is an early phase 3 candidate to watch, and the drug performed well in its phase 2 trial efficacy. Considering that hep-C affects more than 150 million people across the globe, with a market for new medications estimated at $20 billion by Bloomberg, an approval here could be a big win for Merck. Don’t expect vaneprevir to reach the regulatory approval stage any time soon, however.
Atherosclerosis treatment and cardiovascular therapy anacetrapib is another promising candidate to watch. The drug’s a successor in a long line of developmental drugs to promote HDL cholesterol — many of which have flamed out — but Merck pushes on. Anacetrapib’s a long shot, but if the drug pans out, it could be a multibillion-dollar blockbuster for Merck. It’s currently in phase 3 trials, and Merck investors will likely have a long time to wait on this candidate.
Even this faces competition, however. Sanofi SA (ADR) (NYSE:SNY) and Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc (NASDAQ:REGN)‘s competing LDL cholesterol-reducing therapy REGN727 launched phase 3 trials last year, and while the drug likely will see a long wait for results, some analysts are optimistic about its potential. Peak sales estimates range from $2.5 billion to $6 billion — no chump change for sure — and Sanofi SA (ADR) (NYSE:SNY)’s hoping the drug can clear regulators by 2015 in time to beat Merck’s and other competing therapies to the market.
Is all this enough for Merck to beat back patent loss-related sales? Current leading drugs should help, as diabetes-fighting Januvia and Janumet continue to fortify Merck’s revenue, and other leaders such as Gardasil have grown strongly in recent years despite exceeding blockbuster status. Still, you’ll need to keep an eye on Merck’s pipeline. While this company has plenty of drugs and indications under development, it’ll have to hit on promising potential blockbusters like odanacatib and anacetrapib in order to stabilize Merck’s future. Anything less, and the patent cliff could be a much bigger worry than expected.
The article Does This Pipeline Promise Tomorrow’s Blockbuster Sales? originally appeared on Fool.com.
Fool contributor Dan Carroll has no position in any stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned.
Copyright © 1995 – 2013 The Motley Fool, LLC. All rights reserved. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
