Can Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO) Comeback?

Yahoo! Inc. (NASDAQ:YHOO)Marissa Mayer’s arrival at Yahoo! Inc. (NASDAQ:YHOO) nearly a year ago put the company back into the spotlight. Investors are showing their vote of confidence in the company as Yahoo!’s shares spiked by almost 35% (year-to-date). The company still faces many challenges. For instance, the ongoing collaboration between Yahoo! and Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT) has yet to put a dent in the dominance of Google Inc (NASDAQ:GOOG) in the search-engine market; meanwhile, Yahoo! Inc. (NASDAQ:YHOO) is also trying to accelerate its hold in the mobile market. Is this the right direction for Yahoo! Inc. (NASDAQ:YHOO)? Will the company be able to recover in 2013? Let’s take a close look at these issues.

Mobile search

Yahoo! Inc. (NASDAQ:YHOO) is trying to augment its revenue by tapping into the sharply growing mobile market. The company introduced new apps, launched a new Yahoo.com (NASDAQ:YHOO) mobile site, and acquired new companies to accelerate its mobile presence. But the main issue I have with jumping on the mobile bandwagon is the lower profit margins mobile advertising offers compared with PC advertising.

Furthermore, Google Inc (NASDAQ:GOOG)’s stronghold via its mobile-operating system will keep Yahoo! Inc. (NASDAQ:YHOO) behind in the mobile market. According to one report, Google is projected to augment its revenue by more than 80% in 2013 (year-over-year). Google’s competitors will also sharply increase their revenue in 2013, but they will maintain less than 10% of the total market share in the mobile-search advertising sector.

Advertising

Yahoo! Inc. (NASDAQ:YHOO)’s revenue continues to dwindle, and fell by 6.6% in the first quarter of 2013 (y-o-y). The company’s paid clicks rose by 16% during the quarter, while the price-per-click fell by 7%. In comparison, Google’s revenue from advertising in its own sites sharply rose by more than 18%. Its sales from network members’ websites also rose, increasing by nearly 12%.

Microsoft, much like Google Inc (NASDAQ:GOOG), managed to increase revenue from its online services, which include its Bing search engine, by nearly 18% in the recent quarter (y-o-y). But unlike Google, Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT)’s online division continues to lose money. In terms of market share, Google is maintaining its dominance in the U.S search-engine market at more than 67%. Bing and Yahoo! slightly raised their market shares – perhaps on the back of Google Inc (NASDAQ:GOOG). Bing and Yahoo! Inc. (NASDAQ:YHOO)’s shares accounts for less than 17% and 12% of the market, respectively, of the U.S search-engine market.

Perhaps if Yahoo! tries to expand its network members market – a market that served Google well in recent years and accounts for a quarter of its advertising revenue – this could give Yahoo! Inc. (NASDAQ:YHOO) a chance to augment its revenue in advertising in the U.S.

Search engines in the U.S and China

Google Inc (NASDAQ:GOOG) continues to seek growth in emerging markets such as China; Yahoo! Inc. (NASDAQ:YHOO), on the other hand, cut its exposure to the Asian market as in September 2012 it sold a large portion of its stake in Chinese e-commerce Alibaba Group for $7.6 billion. This decision has lead to a sharp rise in the company’s cash flow. According to the company, it received $6.3 billion in cash and $800 million in preferred Alibaba shares. Yahoo! Inc. (NASDAQ:YHOO) still has a stake in Alibaba that is estimated to be worth around $9 billion.

Yahoo! Inc. (NASDAQ:YHOO) stated it will use a large portion of the funds (approximately $3.6 billion) it received for selling Alibaba to augment its share-repurchase program. In the first quarter of 2013, the company bought $775 million worth of its own stock. The sharp rise in Yahoo!’s repurchase program could indicate the company isn’t putting its resources toward investing in the business, but instead toward returning funds to its investors.

I still think Yahoo! Inc. (NASDAQ:YHOO)’s decision to sell part of its stake in Alibaba was the right one: Yahoo! should try to augment its market share in the search engine market in the U.S and cut its exposure to emerging markets – these markets are rising fast but ad revenue is much smaller. Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT)’s Bing is trying to reinvent its brand by running commercials that go head-to-head with Google’s service. This might not be a bad idea for Yahoo! to also try.

Google Inc (NASDAQ:GOOG) is seeing a sharp rise in revenue in emerging markets, but this rise is also dragging down the company’s average cost-per-click, which declined in the first quarter of 2013 by 4%. Moreover, if Google will keep augmenting its operations in China and other emerging markets, this could push Google’s profit margins lower.

Research and development

One indicator for potential future growth in a company is its allotment toward research and development, or R&D. Yahoo!’s R&D budget fell by 4% (y-o-y). In comparison, during the same time frame, Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT)’s R&D provision grew by 5% and Google’s by more than 27%. I think that if Yahoo! Inc. (NASDAQ:YHOO) wishes to compete with other leading search engines it will have to start raising its R&D budget.

I think that Yahoo! has the potential to augment its market share in the search engine market in the U.S, a business that generates among the highest revenue from ads. If the company will shift its attention toward the above-mentioned issues, it might stand a chance to recover in the near future.

The article Is Yahoo! Capable of a Recovery? originally appeared on Fool.com.

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