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Admit It, Research In Motion Ltd (BBRY) Analysts: You Just Don’t Know

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In the run-up to its much-anticipated earnings release on June 28, Research In Motion Ltd (NASDAQ:BBRY) investors have to contend with wildly varying news and analyst expectations. In the past few days alone, BlackBerry has dealt with downgrades and lowered price targets by some, while others are predicting its Z10 and new Q10 smartphones running BB10 could be a smashing success by the end of this year.

BlackBerry Ltd (NASDAQ:BBRY)

And let’s not forget the recent concerns raised by The Guardian news article questioning Research In Motion Ltd (NASDAQ:BBRY)’s smartphone security relating to the recent spy scandal. It’s a confusing time to be sure, especially if you’re a shareholder.

First, the bad news
Leading up to Tuesday’s closing price of $14.84 a share, BlackBerry had been on a nice little roll in June, rewarding shareholders with a 9% jump in share price. Then the other shoe dropped.

In this case, the shoe belonged to a Bernstein Research analyst who cut his rating on Research In Motion Ltd (NASDAQ:BBRY) to “underperform” based on his belief that “Blackberry is now set to disappoint investor expectations for the second half.”

According to the Bernstein analyst, the initial enthusiasm surrounding BB10 is waning, and the result was a 4% sell-off by the end of Wednesday’s trading.

By now, most the world has heard the name Edward Snowden, the former NSA contractor responsible for the furor surrounding privacy issues. Companies everywhere have been scrambling to cover themselves and placate concerned wireless customers and Internet users. Research In Motion Ltd (NASDAQ:BBRY) was not exempt from the fallout, in spite of its well-earned reputation among governments and private industry for superior smartphone security and operating systems.

Earlier this week, BlackBerry was forced to defend itself after reports surfaced from the documents Snowden showed The Guardian detailing the successful hacking of BlackBerry smartphones used by government officials at Group of 20 meetings. In response, BlackBerry said, “We remain confident in the superiority of BlackBerry’s mobile security platform for customers.”

Now, for some good news
In the past week, Research In Motion Ltd (NASDAQ:BBRY) has received several analyst upgrades, including Societe Generale changing its “sell” rating to a “buy.” But the upgrade from an analyst at RBC Capital Markets is what really gives BlackBerry bulls something to hold on to, and is an ideal example of just how difficult it is to get a feel for BlackBerry’s future prospects. About the same time Bernstein was downgrading BlackBerry, RBC Capital Markets raised its expectations for smartphone shipments. According to RBC, Research In Motion Ltd (NASDAQ:BBRY) will ship 3.5 million units in its fiscal 2014 first quarter, up from RBC’s initial estimate of 2.75 million.

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