Elon Musk seems to have developed a pattern: when asked explicitly whether he plans to potentially merge Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) and Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (NASDAQ:SPCX), he declines to respond either way, and both stocks move anyway. Musk was asked again at the All-In Summit in Los Angeles on September 14 why Tesla and SpaceX remain distinct companies, despite their growing ties. He termed it a “great question” and responded in a way that said little specific while reigniting speculation: “With all this collaboration, on so many levels, who can imagine what action one might take when there’s so much close collaboration in so many areas.” TSLA and SPCX shares rose overnight ahead of the September 15 session following the comment.
A Familiar Non-Answer
This is at least the second time in two months that Musk has stepped up to the line without crossing. On Tesla’s second-quarter results call in July, he was asked directly if he sees benefit in someday integrating the businesses. He did not reject the idea, instead citing “more and more overlap” between the companies, including shared work on Terafab, a joint semiconductor manufacturing venture between Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI, as well as Grok integration into Tesla vehicles and Starlink connectivity built into the Cybercab. He declined to confirm anything, stating that merging companies “has to be done with the appropriate process” and is not something that is determined during an earnings call.
Wall Street Engages With the Idea, Not Just Retail Traders
At this point, the speculation isn’t just driven by ordinary investors’ enthusiasm. Jefferies believes the merger makes strategic sense. Its framework calculated that Musk would retain approximately 55.3% voting control in a deal finalized without a merger premium, perhaps leaving room for Tesla, Inc. shareholders to receive one. JPMorgan described the acquisition as “strategically coherent on paper,” indicating possible integration in artificial intelligence, robotics, energy, transportation, and space.
However, some coverage has noted that both Tesla, Inc. and Space Exploration Technologies Corp. stock had been declining for some time prior to Musk’s latest comment, with Musk reportedly running out of new catalysts to reverse that trend, making a vague, no-cost hint about a multitrillion-dollar merger a low-effort way to keep investor attention without committing to anything. That skepticism is bolstered by the fact that both stocks fell nearly 2% on September 14 before the latest overnight rally, implying that the “merger hint” boost is a short-term mood trade stacked on top of weaker underlying price action.
Institutional Positioning
Given Space Exploration Technologies Corp.’s new public listing, 119 funds having holdings as of the second quarter. Tesla, Inc. saw hedge fund ownership fall from 123 in the first quarter to 116 in the second, a drop that predates the latest merger speculation but reflects the broader institutional caution that has surrounded the company in recent months.
Should the Hint Be Taken Seriously?
The overlap between the two companies is growing in concrete, verifiable ways: Terafab’s chip manufacturing project involves Tesla, SpaceX, xAI and Intel, with public filings contemplating up to approximately $119 billion of investment across four phases, and Tesla’s quarterly filings already show an equity investment in SpaceX, implying that investors have some indirect cross-exposure. Wall Street’s involvement is particularly significant, since both Jefferies and JPMorgan have produced extensive frameworks that imply institutional analysts see strategic logic in this, rather than merely a media-driven rumor.
The Case for Dismissal
However, Musk has now given some version of this same non-answer at least twice in two months without ever confirming a mechanism, timeline, or formal process, and his own words explicitly state that any combination “has got to be done with the appropriate process,” which has yet to begin. The timing, which came during a multi-week period of underlying price decline in both names, follows a pattern of using vague, headline-generating announcements to shift sentiment without making any tangible commitments. A full merger of a publicly traded company like Tesla, Inc. and a newly public Space Exploration Technologies Corp. would also involve major regulatory, governance, and shareholder approval challenges, which a stage comment at a conference can’t resolve.
Insider Monkey’s Bottom Line
Given Musk’s now-repeated history of hinting but not committing, investors in both stocks should view these statements as a sentiment catalyst rather than an indication that a deal is near. Those seeking a more believable signal should look for real steps, such as a formal board procedure, regulatory filings, or exact deal terms, rather than more conference remarks, as Wall Street’s existing frameworks already show the analytical groundwork exists. However, there is no sign that either company’s board has begun to take action on it.
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