Evercore ISI’s annual consumer survey points to the strongest iPhone upgrade intent in years, with pricing power appearing to be even stronger than unit volume. The findings were strong enough for the firm to raise its price target. While the survey is detailed and supported by historical comparisons, it measures what consumers said they intended to do before the launch. Actual pre-order data for the iPhone 18 now provides a different data point. JP Morgan’s initial delivery lead-time tracking shows shorter wait times than last year, particularly in China.
Despite the positive analyst sentiment surrounding the latest iPhone launch, AAPL stock is facing $2.7 billion worth of pressure from an unlikely source.
Evercore ISI’s Survey Points To a Stronger-Than-Normal iPhone Upgrade Cycle
Evercore ISI found strong iPhone buying intentions in its survey of nearly 4,000 consumers, with 61% saying they plan to purchase an iPhone this year. That is the second-strongest result in the survey’s history and well above its 45% long-term average. Demand also shifted toward higher-end models, with 53% saying they planned to buy an iPhone 18 Pro or Pro Max, above Evercore ISI’s 51% survey average. Another 14% said they planned to purchase the new iPhone Duo. Analyst Amit Daryanani said pricing was the bigger surprise:
Pricing trends continued to grow, with our survey reflecting an aggregate ASP of $1,374, up nearly 28% and well above our long-term survey average.
The firm raised its Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) price target from $365 to $380 while keeping an Outperform rating.
Real-World Data Offers a More Mixed Picture
Early iPhone 18 data initially showed shorter delivery waits than the previous generation. However, that gap closed quickly, with JP Morgan’s tracking showing global lead times for the Pro and Pro Max expanding by 12 and 7 days, respectively, in the days following the September 12 pre-order launch. By mid-week, the Pro Max’s wait time had converged with last year’s iPhone 17 cycle. JP Morgan analyst Samik Chatterjee attributed the initially shorter lead times to Apple front-loading premium inventory early in the cycle rather than to weaker demand, so the lead-time data on its own doesn’t clearly support a softer-demand read. However, GF Securities separately described early demand as lukewarm and pricing tells a more consistent story. The iPhone 18 Pro’s actual starting price increased by only $100.
Evercore ISI’s survey confirms strong consumer interest in the iPhone 18 lineup, but the pre-order data doesn’t clearly challenge that enthusiasm. With JP Morgan’s lead-time signal now neutralized, the bigger question is pricing. Consumers said they would accept significantly higher costs, but Evercore’s pricing thesis also depends on buyers shifting toward higher-end models and storage configurations.
Hedge fund ownership of Apple remained virtually unchanged, with the number of funds holding the stock slipping from 170 at the end of Q1 2026 to 169 at the end of the second quarter of 2026. The negligible move points to stable institutional sentiment, while short interest stood at only 0.80% of float.
For both retail and institutional investors, the iPhone upgrade cycle continues to be significant, especially as the latest AI features may not be available on previous generations. Despite criticism of a lack of innovation over the last couple of years, the company continues to win customer upgrades to the latest iPhone models.
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