XPO, Inc. (XPO): A Bull Case Theory 

We came across a bullish thesis on XPO, Inc. on R. Dennis’s Substack’s Substack by OppCost. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on XPO. XPO, Inc.’s share was trading at $148.79 as of January 26th. XPO’s trailing and forward P/E were 53.52 and 34.72 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.

XPO, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides freight transportation services in the United States, North America, France, the United Kingdom, and rest of Europe. XPO presents a compelling bullish opportunity through the recent institutional activity of selling $115 strike puts expiring February 20, 2026. With the stock trading around $147.27 as of January 13, 2026, the puts are deeply out-of-the-money, offering a ~22% margin of safety.

The trade collected $0.85 per share across 5,555 contracts, generating $472,175 in premium, highlighting strong institutional conviction. This setup appeals to retail investors seeking high-probability, tactical trades, particularly given the timing around XPO’s Q4 2025 earnings report on February 5, 2026.

Elevated implied volatility ahead of earnings increases potential returns, and a post-earnings volatility crush could allow early profitable exits even if the stock remains flat. Technically, the $115 strike sits well below XPO’s 200-day moving average of $126.44, providing a strong buffer against downside risk and reinforcing the trade’s conservative profile.

Fundamentally, XPO’s North American Less-Than-Truckload (LTL) business continues to outperform, capturing market share with yield growth above 6%, reflecting robust pricing power in a soft freight environment.

While sector volatility driven by manufacturing reshoring and potential tariffs remains a consideration, XPO’s operational resilience, strong margins, and strategic positioning make the probability of a significant decline to $115 low. Overall, the combination of technical support, strong fundamentals, and institutional confidence positions XPO as a favorable bullish opportunity for traders seeking high-probability, risk-adjusted returns over the near term.

Previously, we covered a bullish thesis on Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. (ODFL) by Richard Toad in October 2024, which highlighted the company’s scale advantages, union-free workforce, high ROIC, and market share gains in the LTL sector. ODFL’s stock price has depreciated by approximately 11.30% since our coverage due to broader sector weakness and macro headwinds. OppCost shares a similar perspective on XPO, Inc. but emphasizes tactical institutional trades, elevated implied volatility around earnings, and near-term risk-adjusted opportunities for retail investors alongside strong LTL fundamentals.

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Disclosure: None.