Why Cantor Fitzgerald Stayed Neutral on BigBear.ai (BBAI) After a Messy Quarter

BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:BBAI) is one of the worst-performing agentic AI stocks so far in 2026.

As of the April 2, 2026 close, the stock was down 38.8% year to date, falling to $3.58 from $5.85 on January 2, 2026.

Cantor Fitzgerald added to the pressure on March 3, one day after BigBear.ai released fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results. The firm maintained a Neutral rating but cut its price target to $5 from $6. According to the analyst note summary, Cantor’s Jonathan Ruykhaver said the company delivered a “solid” fourth quarter despite a 37.7% year-over-year revenue decline, which he tied largely to federal program disruptions on select Army contracts and shutdown-related headwinds.

Cantor also pointed to 2026 guidance that implies roughly 17% growth at the midpoint and includes an estimated $25 million revenue contribution from the Ask Sage acquisition.

That context matters because BigBear.ai’s March 2 release was messy beneath the surface. Fourth-quarter revenue fell 38% to $27.3 million, gross margin dropped to 20.3% from 37.4%, and adjusted EBITDA swung to a loss of $10.3 million from positive $2.0 million a year earlier. Management said the revenue drop was mainly due to lower volume on Army programs.

BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:BBAI) provides AI-driven decision intelligence, analytics, and workflow tools for government and commercial customers, with a particular focus on defense, national security, travel, trade, and supply-chain uses.

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