Why Bernstein Sees Structural Upside for ASML Through 2029

ASML Holding N.V. (NASDAQ:ASML) is one of the Buzzing AI Stocks Analysts are Watching. On January 16, Bernstein SocGen Group analyst David Dai reiterated an Outperform rating on the stock with a $1,528.00 price target. The firm is strongly positive on ASML as it sees structural demand upside for the stock into 2026–2029.

On January 15, TSMC “smashed” market expectations when it announced a capital expenditure guidance of $52-56 billion for 2026, a 32% year-over-year increase from its 2025 capex of $40.8 billion at the midpoint.

Bernstein believes this is “great news” for all semiconductor equipment names, particularly ASML, given the high litho intensity in advanced logic. The company also forecast revenue growth of 30%, reflecting how capex intensity remains elevated at an estimated 33%.

The allocation toward advanced logic has increased to 70-80%, up from 70% last year. The firm noted that this is partly offset by decreased allocation to equipment, as TSMC accelerated the buildout of “new clean rooms in anticipation to stronger capacity needs in 2028/2029.”

We conclude that 1. advanced logic equipment growth in 2026 is strong at around 30%; 2. equipment demand will further accelerate in 2028/29 when the new clean rooms are ready to be filled with equipments.

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