Was The Smart Money Right About Eli Lilly and Company (LLY)?

The latest 13F reporting period has come and gone, and Insider Monkey is again at the forefront when it comes to making use of this gold mine of data. We at Insider Monkey have plowed through 867 13F filings that hedge funds and well-known value investors are required to file by the SEC. The 13F filings show the funds’ and investors’ portfolio positions as of September 30th. Hedge funds’ consensus stock picks performed spectacularly over the last 3 years, but 2022 hasn’t been kind to hedge funds. In this article we look at how hedge funds traded Eli Lilly and Company (NYSE:LLY) and determine whether the smart money was really smart about this stock.

Eli Lilly and Company (NYSE:LLY) has seen a decrease in support from the world’s most elite money managers lately. Eli Lilly and Company (NYSE:LLY) was in 62 hedge funds’ portfolios at the end of the third quarter of 2021. The all time high for this statistic is 64. Our calculations also showed that LLY isn’t among the 30 most popular stocks among hedge funds (click for Q3 rankings).

Rajiv Jain of GQG Partners

At Insider Monkey, we scour multiple sources to uncover the next great investment idea. For example, lithium prices have more than doubled over the past year, so we go through lists like the 10 best EV stocks to pick the next Tesla that will deliver a 10x return. Even though we recommend positions in only a tiny fraction of the companies we analyze, we check out as many stocks as we can. Now let’s take a gander at the fresh hedge fund action surrounding Eli Lilly and Company (NYSE:LLY).

Do Hedge Funds Think LLY Is A Good Stock To Buy Now?

At Q3’s end, a total of 62 of the hedge funds tracked by Insider Monkey were long this stock, a change of -3% from the second quarter of 2021. The graph below displays the number of hedge funds with bullish position in LLY over the last 25 quarters. So, let’s examine which hedge funds were among the top holders of the stock and which hedge funds were making big moves.

Is LLY A Good Stock To Buy?

Of the funds tracked by Insider Monkey, Ken Fisher’s Fisher Asset Management has the most valuable position in Eli Lilly and Company (NYSE:LLY), worth close to $1.5047 billion, amounting to 0.9% of its total 13F portfolio. Sitting at the No. 2 spot is John Overdeck and David Siegel of Two Sigma Advisors, with a $468 million position; 1.2% of its 13F portfolio is allocated to the stock. Remaining hedge funds and institutional investors that hold long positions include Rajiv Jain’s GQG Partners, Phill Gross and Robert Atchinson’s Adage Capital Management and Ken Griffin’s Citadel Investment Group. In terms of the portfolio weights assigned to each position Sphera Global Healthcare Fund allocated the biggest weight to Eli Lilly and Company (NYSE:LLY), around 6.76% of its 13F portfolio. Partner Fund Management is also relatively very bullish on the stock, designating 3.57 percent of its 13F equity portfolio to LLY.

Due to the fact that Eli Lilly and Company (NYSE:LLY) has witnessed bearish sentiment from hedge fund managers, it’s easy to see that there is a sect of fund managers that decided to sell off their full holdings in the third quarter. It’s worth mentioning that Efrem Kamen’s Pura Vida Investments said goodbye to the biggest stake of the 750 funds followed by Insider Monkey, valued at an estimated $15.1 million in stock. Brad Farber’s fund, Atika Capital, also cut its stock, about $8 million worth. These transactions are interesting, as total hedge fund interest was cut by 2 funds in the third quarter.

Let’s also examine hedge fund activity in other stocks – not necessarily in the same industry as Eli Lilly and Company (NYSE:LLY) but similarly valued. We will take a look at Novo Nordisk A/S (NYSE:NVO), Danaher Corporation (NYSE:DHR), Intel Corporation (NASDAQ:INTC), Abbott Laboratories (NYSE:ABT), PepsiCo, Inc. (NYSE:PEP), Accenture Plc (NYSE:ACN), and Broadcom Inc (NASDAQ:AVGO). All of these stocks’ market caps match LLY’s market cap.

Ticker No of HFs with positions Total Value of HF Positions (x1000) Change in HF Position
NVO 27 4053265 7
DHR 74 6946837 -4
INTC 66 6472854 -12
ABT 63 3611527 2
PEP 61 4435441 -5
ACN 56 4460650 4
AVGO 50 2706386 3
Average 56.7 4669566 -0.7

View table here if you experience formatting issues.

As you can see these stocks had an average of 56.7 hedge funds with bullish positions and the average amount invested in these stocks was $4670 million. That figure was $4287 million in LLY’s case. Danaher Corporation (NYSE:DHR) is the most popular stock in this table. On the other hand Novo Nordisk A/S (NYSE:NVO) is the least popular one with only 27 bullish hedge fund positions. Eli Lilly and Company (NYSE:LLY) is not the most popular stock in this group but hedge fund interest is still above average. Our overall hedge fund sentiment score for LLY is 69.3. Stocks with higher number of hedge fund positions relative to other stocks as well as relative to their historical range receive a higher sentiment score. Our calculations showed that top 5 most popular stocks among hedge funds returned 95.8% in 2019 and 2020, and outperformed the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) by 40 percentage points. These stocks gained 29.6% in 2021 and still beat the market by 3.6 percentage points. Hedge funds were also right about betting on LLY as the stock returned 6.6% since the end of Q3 (through 1/31) and outperformed the market. Hedge funds were rewarded for their relative bullishness.

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Disclosure: None. This article was originally published at Insider Monkey.