Warrior Met Coal, Inc. (HCC): A Bull Case Theory 

We came across a bullish thesis on Warrior Met Coal, Inc. on Value Degen’s Substack’s Substack by Unemployed Value Degen. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on HCC. Warrior Met Coal, Inc.’s share was trading at $78.00 as of December 2nd. HCC’s trailing and forward P/E were 118.62 and 12.64 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.

Warrior Met Coal, Inc. engages in the production and export of non-thermal steelmaking coal for the steel production by metal manufacturers in Europe, South America, and Asia.  HCC has demonstrated resilience and operational excellence in a challenging market where many non-AI companies are struggling. The company’s strong fundamentals were reflected in its recent earnings report, which drove a 15% increase in the stock price.

A major catalyst was the early and on-budget commissioning of the Blue Creek mine, which became operational eight months ahead of schedule, prompting management to raise guidance for the year. While Warrior Met Coal’s preferred capital allocation strategy focuses on dividends, management’s discussion of a potential share buyback highlighted the flexibility and shareholder-friendly approach of the company’s leadership.

HCC is a compelling small-cap play, owning three mines that rank within the first quartile of the global coal cost curve. These low-cost assets are typically the target of acquisition by large mining conglomerates, but Warrior Met remains independent due to the strong ESG-driven aversion to coal among larger investors. This independence allows HCC to capitalize on favorable market conditions and operational efficiency without the pressure of being absorbed into a larger entity.

The combination of low-cost, high-quality assets, operational execution, and shareholder-aligned management decisions positions Warrior Met as a standout in its sector. The early Blue Creek production, upgraded guidance, and potential capital return initiatives create clear near-term catalysts, while the company’s unique positioning as an independent, cost-advantaged coal producer offers a differentiated opportunity relative to peers. For investors seeking exposure to a fundamentally sound, cash-generative energy company, Warrior Met presents a rare risk/reward profile in an otherwise challenging market for traditional commodities.

Previously we covered a bullish thesis on Warrior Met Coal, Inc. (HCC) by Margin of Sanity in May 2025, which highlighted its low-cost metallurgical coal, Blue Creek expansion, and disciplined capital allocation. The stock has appreciated approximately 72.22% since coverage as the thesis played out. Unemployed Value Degen shares a similar perspective but emphasizes early Blue Creek production, raised guidance, and HCC’s ESG-driven independence.

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Disclosure: None.