Walmart Inc. (WMT): A Bull Case Theory 

We came across a bullish thesis on Walmart Inc. on Compounding Dividends’s Substack by TJ Terwilliger. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on WMT. Walmart Inc.’s share was trading at $103.05 as of September 25th. WMT’s trailing and forward P/E were 38.89 and 39.53 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.

Walmart Inc. (WMT) is a global retail powerhouse operating an extensive network of discount stores, supercenters, Sam’s Clubs, and e-commerce platforms across the U.S., Mexico, and other international markets. Traditionally known for its everyday low prices and broad product assortment, Walmart has delivered steady revenue growth of roughly 3.5% annually over the past 15 years, with EPS growing slightly faster at about 5%, largely due to share buybacks. The company operates on low net margins of 2.5–3% but has maintained a remarkable dividend track record, increasing payouts for 53 consecutive years, supported by a well-covered payout ratio.

While its core retail operations remain a slow, steady grower, Walmart has cultivated high-growth segments that are transforming the business. Its e-commerce platform, leveraging over 4,600 U.S. stores as distribution hubs, achieved 25% global growth in Q2, outpacing peers and enabling rapid delivery across markets, including under an hour in China and 15 minutes in India.

Walmart Marketplace, its third-party selling platform, and the Walmart+ membership program grew 17% and 15%, respectively, expanding reach and customer engagement. Even more compelling, Walmart’s advertising business, Walmart Connect, is scaling rapidly with 46% growth, generating high-margin revenue from in-store and online data insights.

Together, these initiatives are reshaping Walmart into a dual business: a traditional retail operation and a high-margin digital ecosystem encompassing e-commerce, memberships, and advertising. This evolution positions Walmart for substantial upside if the market begins to fully value its faster-growing, higher-margin segments, beyond the slow-moving grocery retailer narrative. The company now offers investors a rare combination of resilient cash flow, a strong dividend history, and exposure to accelerating digital businesses.

Previously we covered a bullish thesis on Target Corporation (TGT) by LongYield in May 2025, which highlighted the company’s digital momentum, cost control, and capital deployment despite near-term sales weakness. The company’s stock price has depreciated approximately by 7.58% since our coverage due to macroeconomic headwinds. The thesis still stands as Target’s omnichannel strategy supports recovery. TJ Terwilliger shares a similar perspective but emphasizes Walmart’s dual business model with high-growth digital segments.

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Disclosure: None.