Wabash National Corporation (NYSE:WNC) Q2 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

And what we said and we’ll call the readout of the script is that we need to see how peak season plays out. If it plays out in just a moderately successful manner then I think we’re in good shape to maybe be a little bit better than what – from a Wabash perspective, what FTR and ACT are forecasting. So we are positive, but at the same time we have a pragmatic look at it.

Operator: Thank you. Your next question comes from the line of Mike Shlisky of D.A. Davidson. Please go ahead.

Mike Shlisky: Yes. Hi, good morning, and thanks for taking my question. To follow-up on your answer there Brent, just to follow-up on your answer there Brent, those same forecasters, at least back research is saying that at 2024, in 2025 and for several years after, we’re right back up to 300,000 plus trailers again, back where it is basically in 2023. Can you comment on, is that an appropriate – is that – would that be more of like a – is like – is the future level more of an average replacement year going forward given fleet size increases and interest in keeping the fleet relatively fresh going forward as opposed to the past, where it was 250, 270? And are there any drivers beyond 2023 or 2024 that are regulatory in nature that are also going to provide an additional sales boost at any point that you know of?

Brent Yeagy: Well, I’ll take the last piece. I’m not going to say right now that there are additional – we’ll call it, regulatory secular factors that are going to build in, I think the full effect of the total regulatory environment just continues to add pressure to the ability to efficiently move product or freight in the United States, which is going to pressure asset numbers to rise over time with from a trailer to tractor ratio. So that more of a general, I don’t think there’s anything uniquely new in that. When we think about 2025 and 2026, I am in a position to absolutely support the general position that we’re going to move right back into a point of scarcity, where demand will exceed supply moving into 2025.

I completely believe that is the case with just a moderate recovery from a freight standpoint specifically with the customers that we entertain. And a lot of that is those secular drivers that we have called out trailer pools, nearshoring, so on and so forth. We’re not seeing capacity being added in the market. The supply base is not adding a huge amount of capacity, but they are getting better, which would be enabling. But so I think scarcity is on the horizon, which is an important for how we manage the business. And if I had to say anything, I think ACT and FTR have still not fully factored in those secular factors in what trailer demand will actually be in outgoing years.

Mike Shlisky: Got it. And to follow further on that then, so if the current run rates for 2023 are kind of roughly where more average years are going forward, maybe not in 2024, but even then it could actually still happen. What’s your confidence level about repeating $4.50 or so of EPS in any future year where 300,000 failures for the industry are produced?

Mike Pettit: I think in an environment of scarcity, Wabash has reset the bar as to how we should be looked at going forward. Remember, we said it in the script, we’re still producing 20% less, now that’s factoring our surge volume coming into play, which is the additional dry vans, 10,000 plus dry vans plus any other improvements that we make in the business between now and then to gain extra capacity. So I would say, again, we are well positioned to meet or exceed, and that still doesn’t take into account the relative growth we’re seeing in the other aspects of the business and further growth. Remember, we’re running a 20% improvement in revenue NOI performance relative to our parts and service business. That’s going to be compounding in those later years as well. So I think anyone who thinks that our current performance is somehow a unique kind of unicorn year, I think is missing the story.