W. R. Berkley Corporation (NYSE:WRB) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

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Robert Berkley: Sure. I mean from our perspective, we think the — we’re using a very broad brush here. And I think we need to be mindful of that. And we operate the business with a very, very fine brush. So there’s a bit of a difference. I think at a macro level, we need to be conscious of the fact that there have been rate decrease after rate decrease after rate decrease and a lot of that decision-making is based on information that people collect through the rearview mirror. And to make a long story short, we just think that you can’t wait to see the problems in the results. You need to anticipate that. And I think we’re very focused on that. So I think a lot of state rating bureaus, NCCI I think that they just need to be, we need to be as an industry careful that we are conscious of what is going on out the front windshield, not solely consumed by what’s in the rearview mirror.

Alex Scott: Got it. And then the second one was sort of a follow-up on some of the growth questions that you guys have received. I mean is there anything to read into the buyback you did this quarter? And seems like E&S property, maybe some of the property kind of coming out of standard lines and the foot in the water on reinsurance in real tangible ways that you can deploy capital. But is this an indication that that maybe you’re not seeing as much capital deployment opportunity as you would have liked, and we might actually get a little bit more back in buyback over the next year.

Robert Berkley: I think the answer is that we do see a lot of opportunity before us. And we are conscious of the capital needs in order to support that. I would suggest to you, I would not read too deeply in based on what I can see so far, granted it’s just very early in Q1, and I don’t have a lot of data but I would encourage you not to read too deeply into the fourth quarter as far as being an indicator for opportunity going forward. . And again, we have a view as to a variety of things, both how we see opportunity going forward. We also have a view as to what the capital that’s required to support that. And finally, we have a view as to what we think the value of the business is. And we put that all together and we try and make decisions from there.

Alex Scott: Got it. Thank you.

Operator: Thank you. We’ll next now to Ryan Tunis at Autonomous Research.

Robert Berkley: Hi, Ryan. Good evening.

Ryan Tunis: Good evening. A couple for me. First one, just trying to parse out what’s happened with the loss ratio this year, at least in my model, because I’m confused because in my model with this quarter baked in the underlying loss ratio looks kind of flattish, ’21 to ’22. I mean I was hoping, Rob, maybe you could unpack like — there’s obviously noise, but how much did you — did loss picks go down or whether it was just — what give you kind of — what was your view of what the core margin expansion would have been this year, if not for noise.

Robert Berkley: I would have hoped that we could have done a little bit better. But as I alluded to earlier, the fires created some non-cat noise, which we are trying to make sure that we understand and that, that is not a permanent part of our loss activity. So as I said just earlier, that was probably worth more than 1 point, not more than 1.5 points.

Ryan Tunis: Got it. And then yes, so a follow-up on the fires. We’ve never really seen that type of non-cat volatility here. And I guess my interpretation of that was your per risk reinsurance program that attaches pretty low, but a little more than a point is close to like $30 million. So it was a lot of…

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