VST Still a Top Pick Despite Price Cut, Says Evercore, Citing Strong EBITDA Path

Evercore ISI analyst Durgesh Chopra recently lowered the price target on Vistra Corp. (NYSE:VST) to $192 from $202 and kept an Outperform rating on the shares. Vistra operates as an integrated retail electricity and power generation company.

In an investor note, the analyst noted that all of the major Independent Power Producers had reported their quarterly results over the last two weeks and for the most part IPPs faired relatively well during Q1 with strong adjusted EBITDA performance.

The analyst expected the positive momentum to continue across the IPP coverage throughout the year. The advisory was slightly reducing price targets for Talen Energy and Vistra, primarily due to peer multiple contraction, the analyst noted.

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The firm recently reaffirmed its 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance range of $5.5 billion to $6.1 billion and its free cash flow before growth guidance of $3 billion to $3.6 billion. For 2026, the company remains confident in an adjusted EBITDA midpoint opportunity approaching $6 billion to $7 billion. Vistra sees durable demand growth across industries, particularly driven by AI and data center expansions. While legislative and regulatory clarity is awaited in Texas and PJM markets, the company expects these developments to unlock further opportunities.

While we acknowledge the potential of VST, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and have limited downside risk. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than VST and that has 100x upside potential, check out our report about this cheapest AI stock.

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