Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. (NYSE:VIST) Q1 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Miguel Galuccio: Yes, I will agree with you that we have a challenging year ahead in term of production. Nevertheless, I will restate what I said to Bruno. I feel very comfortable, entering with 62,000 barrels per day, aiming for 85,000. And seeing the first results of the pad that we have drilled, I feel super confident. And also, you have to factor in that the 62,000 barrel of oil per day today that we produce come fully from unconventional wells. So that means that, in the last four to three years, the Vista team has managed to develop and to produce 62,000 barrel of oil per day. So for us, aiming to add another 20,000 is not much different than we have done before. It’s going to be a challenging year, but we have the equipment and the operational capacity and the talent to make it happen.

Back to your second and third question. Yes, trucking, as you said, is something that we are going to use this year. As you know, we knew that Oldelval was going to be late. It was scheduled for Q1 2024, and will be delivery on Q4, so we factor it in in our guidance, in our plan, the expenses to cover that. So we create a trucking plan that basically calls for a cost between $10 and $12 per barrel of cost. Q1, we were probably trucking around $2,000 per barrel per day. Q2, we think that number will be probably closer to 9,000 and Q3 it will be up to 12,000 barrels per day. In the guidance, we factor in $25 million expenses related to those costs of trucking. Your third question, if you remember properly was export volume. Export volume in Q1, we have 41% of volume that were directly to export.

And we have a new market dynamic in the domestic market where 60% of the domestic volume were sold at export parity. So we sold basically 57% of our volume to export parity. Q2, we believe that 50% will be directly volume that are going to be export. And probably domestic, we’re basically forecasting that could be around 10%. So 60% of our volume will be sold at export parity. This is what we are forecasting.

Operator: Our next question comes from the line of Tasso Vasconcellos from UBS.

Tasso Vasconcellos: I think I have one here on my side. We have seen an increased competition in the past years here in Brazil, coming from the assets sold by Petrobras, which led several independent players to increase its footprint in the industry, and of course, requiring additional equipment, services, employees, and all of that led to a higher competition in the industry, right? What are Vista’s expectations for this investment process that we’re seeing from YPF and probably from some other players? Do you believe we could see a higher competition in the industry in Argentina either this year or in the upcoming ones? How do you see this environment growing in Argentina? This is my question.

Miguel Galuccio: The short answer, probably yes. First of all, I think the rationalization of the portfolio that YPF is going through – and basically we went through the same rationalization of portfolio knowing that the unconventional opportunity is the main opportunity for us where the scale is and where the margin is. I believe it’s a very rational decision and it’s a good path that YPF is taking in that direction and applaud them for that. I guess I think that will create more activity in the basin. It will probably attract more investment toward conventional fields that, today, for the one that holds both in their portfolio, cannot compete for capital allocation. And if you’re referring to the fact that we create within the service sector, yes, I think it will be more demand for services.

And I will add to what you said that the other effect that you will have is that [indiscernible] is growing. We see more activities. We see basically more people asking for rig and frac fleet and so on. In that sense, I believe we have a competitive advantage compared with the rest. We have, from day one, adopt a model called One Team where we have made our main service providers partners. Partners mean that they’ve been working with us nonstop since day one where we basically give 100% of the activity to them. So that gives us a preferential relationship with those people. We have no problem to add equipment. during the good time and during the bad time. And I think this is a clear example of that, is the high spec rig that we are adding with [indiscernible] basically this year.

So, yes, I think we’ll be more pressured, but I think we will be okay.

Operator: Our next question comes from the line of Andrés Cardona from Citi.

Andrés Cardona: I have two questions. Coming back to the free cash flow concern that Bruno expressed before, there was a second item at least for us that was surprising, the advanced payment for midstream expansion. So could you please give us some context about the outlook for these potential expenses? How will it be deployed over the coming quarters? I understand there is a commitment of close to $150 million, out of which close to $60 million have been deployed. So I wanted to understand what should we expect on this front just to be more accurate on the free cash flow forecast. The second point I wanted to understand is with Brent at $88 per barrel, we have seen the big effort the industry has done to improve the domestic prices, the domestic realization prices.

What are you seeing in the second quarter? What should we expect going forward? Do you expect a slowdown on this following trend that we have seen in the first quarter? And perhaps the last question is, going back to the third rig point, what should we expect for 2025? Will it be high for the full year? Is it yet to be decided? Just trying to get some color about what to expect for the next year.