Viasat, Inc. (VSAT): A Bull Case Theory 

We came across a bullish thesis on Viasat, Inc. on r/Valueinvesting by SupermacsFastFood. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on VSAT. Viasat, Inc.’s share was trading at $45.93 as of January 16th.

Viasat, Inc. provides broadband and communications products and services in the United States and internationally. VSAT is positioned as a compelling investment opportunity, with a valuation that could realistically reach $12 billion based solely on its existing cash flow generation. The company’s strategy leverages Inmarsat-driven free cash flow to pay down acquisition-related debt, creating substantial equity value without the need for growth acceleration, technological breakthroughs, or multiple expansions.

With the stock currently trading near enterprise value parity to revenue, any incremental debt reduction flows almost entirely to equity holders, highlighting a rare and direct lever for value creation. Even under conservative assumptions, a normalized deleveraging path alone could plausibly double the company’s equity value, implying an embedded ~100% return on equity from the current price.

This opportunity is further reinforced by the simplicity and visibility of the cash flow conversion, as the deleveraging mechanics are straightforward and not reliant on market speculation or operational overperformance. The combination of low current valuation relative to the balance sheet and predictable debt paydown positions Viasat as a high-conviction investment, with both equity and credit holders poised to benefit from the capital structure optimization.

In essence, Viasat offers a clear path to unlocking substantial shareholder value through financial engineering and disciplined execution, presenting an attractive risk/reward skew for investors seeking exposure to a cash-flow-rich, capital-light scenario with minimal reliance on external catalysts. The company’s current trading level makes this opportunity particularly compelling, providing a rare chance to capture upside through a disciplined and predictable deleveraging strategy.

Previously, we covered a bullish thesis on Viasat, Inc. (VSAT) by Gskinny in November 2024, which highlighted the stock’s steep decline, high short float, and potential upside from Viasat 3 and global satellite coverage. VSAT’s stock has appreciated by 351.6% since then, driven by improving market sentiment and operational progress. SupermacsFastFood shares a similar view but emphasizes value creation through Inmarsat-driven free cash flow and debt reduction.

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Disclosure: None.