Via Transportation, Inc. (VIA): A Bear Case Theory

We came across a bearish thesis on Via Transportation, Inc. on X.com by Bleecker Street Research. In this article, we will summarize the bears’ thesis on VIA. Via Transportation, Inc.’s share was trading at $26.87 as of January 13th. VIA’s forward P/E was 833.33 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.

VIA is a recently public company with a roughly $2.4 billion market capitalization that positions itself as a high growth transit software platform, but a close examination of its contracts suggests it operates far more like a low margin transportation services contractor than a true SaaS business. A review of approximately 100 public contracts shows that nearly all of VIA’s revenue is tied to service hours, driver labor, and vehicle utilization rather than recurring software licenses.

In practice, most so called upsell revenue occurs when municipalities add more drivers or expand service hours, not when they purchase additional software functionality. Several major customers, including LA Metro and Arlington, Texas, have reduced spending, renegotiated pricing, or replaced VIA’s software entirely with competing solutions such as Spare Labs. Much of VIA’s recent growth is also dependent on temporary federal funding programs like CMAQ and CRP, with deployments frequently shrinking or ending once subsidies expire.

Portfolio churn closely tracks these grant roll offs, while reported retention metrics appear artificially strong due to grant backed minimum revenue commitments and favorable churn definitions rather than durable customer demand. Financial reporting further flatters the business, as VIA books sizable upfront implementation fees and recognizes up to 18 months of software revenue early in contract lifecycles, inflating reported ARR and early gross margins while obscuring weakening economics over time.

The company also excludes insurance costs from cost of revenue, placing them in G&A, a treatment that boosts gross margins and differs from peers such as Uber and Lyft. With COVID era relief funding set to expire and agencies already signaling that microtransit programs are unsustainable without subsidies, VIA faces significant risk, especially given that roughly 40% of microtransit projects fail within three years.

Ultimately, VIA exhibits the economics of a labor intensive, subscale transit contractor reliant on temporary subsidies and aggressive accounting, and at valuations comparable to Lyft’s forward gross profit multiple, the stock could face as much as 60% downside.

Previously, we covered a bullish thesis on Heartland Express, Inc. (HTLD) by Unemployed Value Degen in April 2025, which highlighted an improving freight cycle, rising load rejections, balance sheet deleveraging, and operating leverage from a recovery in trucking demand. HTLD’s stock price has appreciated by approximately 22.63% since our coverage. This is because the early signs of a freight recovery began to emerge. This is because the thesis remains intact as operating conditions continue to improve. Bleecker Street Research shares a contrarian view emphasizing Via Transportation’s structurally weak economics, subsidy dependence, and mischaracterized revenue model.

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Disclosure: None.