Vermilion Energy Inc. (VET): A Bull Case Theory 

We came across a bullish thesis on Vermilion Energy Inc. on Value Degen’s Substack’s Substack by Unemployed Value Degen. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on VET. Vermilion Energy Inc.’s share was trading at $7.27 as of October 16th. VET’s trailing and forward P/E were 11.72 and 9.43 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.

Vermilion Energy (VET) has recently seen a notable cluster of insider buying, signaling renewed confidence from management. The newly appointed VP of Business Development, Lara Conrad, who joined in May, invested CAD 250,000 in shares—a meaningful commitment that reflects conviction in either Vermilion’s prospects or her ability to drive future M&A activity.

Conrad previously led ARC Resources’ $8.1 billion acquisition of Seven Generations Energy, suggesting that VET could be preparing for strategic acquisitions. Independent director Stephen Larke’s CAD 200,000 purchase, particularly rare for non-executive directors, adds credibility, while CEO Dion Hatcher’s smaller CAD 16,000 buy rounds out the cluster. Though insider buying doesn’t necessarily imply ideal timing, it strongly suggests management views the stock as undervalued.

Beyond insider sentiment, macro factors could fortuitously benefit Vermilion. This year’s unusually quiet Atlantic hurricane season—only seven named storms versus thirteen last year—historically correlates with colder winters in Europe, which could increase heating demand by 20–50%. Such conditions would boost Vermilion’s natural gas operations across Ireland, Germany, Hungary, and Croatia.

Meanwhile, the accelerating data center buildout in Canada offers a structural tailwind to domestic natural gas prices, positioning VET to benefit from potential price appreciation in both European (TTF) and Canadian (AECO) markets.While the largest risk lies in a potentially dilutive acquisition, recent insider activity suggests alignment with shareholders and a focus on accretive growth. Combined with ongoing share buybacks and undervalued assets, Vermilion Energy offers a compelling setup with asymmetric upside if macro trends align favorably.

Previously we covered a bullish thesis on Vermilion Energy Inc. (VET) by Unemployed Value Degen in March 2025, which highlighted the company’s European gas expansion, debt reduction strategy, and asset consolidation potential. The company’s stock has depreciated by 3.70% since our coverage. This is because the thesis has not yet played out. The thesis still stands as Vermilion’s strategic direction remains intact. Unemployed Value Degen shares an identical outlook but emphasizes on renewed insider confidence and supportive macro catalysts.

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Disclosure: None.