Valero Energy Corporation (NYSE:VLO) Q2 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

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Manav Gupta: Thank you so much for the detail response. Thank you.

Operator: Thank you. The next question is coming from John Royall of JPMorgan. Please go ahead.

John Royall: Hi. Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. So my first one was just on the coker. It sounds like you’re running full now in the start-up went as planned. But maybe you can just go through any puts and takes around profitability? I know heavy diffs have come in, for example, the diesel cracks are improving recently. Should we think about there being a structurally higher Gulf Coast capture now? And any way to think about quantifying that?

Greg Bram: Hey John, this is Greg Bram. So as Lane mentioned, the Coker started up in April. And I think it’s probably worth noting the project and operating teams did a great job bringing that unit online safely without incident. And that’s after we accelerated the schedule last year to be in a position to capture value from that project here in 2023. We’ve ramped it up to full capacity over the course of the quarter, and it’s running well and median expectations. And I think with that, you can take kind of the guidance we’ve given in the past and think about where the market is today and adjust accordingly. I don’t think we have really a new or different view, because the project is really doing what we expected it to do.

John Royall: Great. And then maybe along the same lines, it would be great to get your thoughts on heavy and medium sour diffs from here with OPEC+ cutting and the second round of the STR release is now over. What are your thoughts on whether we’ll see a widening from here on mediums and heavies or will we likely stay in the current environment where from a sour diffs perspective?

Gary Simmons: Yes, this is Gary. I think we have seen the discounts widen back out some as we’ve moved throughout the third quarter. I think there’s some reason for optimism as we head into fall turnaround season, had two and three, you’ll see some decreased demand for heavy sour crude, which will help the differential some. I think we’ll see some more production growth out of Western Canada as they come out of maintenance season, which would put more barrels back on the market, should continue to see a ramp-up in Chevron production from Venezuela heading into the US Gulf Coast. And then finally, there’s some seasonal factors which should help the discounts as well. High sulfur fuel oil for power burn will begin to wind down seasonally, which will put more high sulfur fuel on the market, help the discounts there.

And then as we transition into winter weather, you would expect to see higher natural gas prices, which changes the economics for some refineries around the world that have been processing medium and heavy sour crude, which have helped the discounts as well.

John Royall: Thank you.

Operator: Thank you. The next question is coming from Theresa Chen of Barclays. Please go ahead.

Theresa Chen: Good morning. On the SAF front, would you mind giving an update on the Navigator BlackRock CCS project? And how is the permitting and right-of-way procurement process going?

Richard Walsh: Hi Theresa, it’s Rich. I’ll start out by saying that the Navigator project is progressing. They’ve got parallel proceedings in front of each of the state’s respective utility boards and/or counties and the regulatory proceedings in Iowa are taking longer than they anticipated. And so Navigator is not expecting regulatory approval until the back half of 2024, which will naturally push their timeline back. And they’ve not announced — and they haven’t given any update on a new start-up schedule. So–

Theresa Chen: Thank you. And in terms of additional SAF opportunities in the DGD facilities, Eric, can you just opine a bit more on how would you think about like the key hurdles it would take to cross to commercialize additional FID?

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