Vale S.A. (VALE) Faces Diverging Analyst Calls Amid Iron Ore Market Shifts

Vale S.A. (NYSE:VALE) is one of the best metal stocks to buy right now. On January 9, Scotiabank downgraded Vale S.A. (NYSE:VALE) to Sector Perform from Sector Outperform, even as it raised the price target to $15 from $14, citing pressure on iron ore markets from rising supply and Guinea’s Simandou mine ramp‑up.

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The bank warned that weak steel demand in China and limited stimulus could drive benchmark iron ore prices down to $90 per ton in the second half of 2026. Despite Vale’s 53% gain in 2025, Scotiabank expects the rally to stall and advises investors to wait for a better entry point.

On December 10, analysts at RBC Capital upgraded Vale S.A. (NYSE:VALE) to Outperform from Sector Perform and increased the price target to $14.20 from $11.

The upgrade follows a move by the research firm to increase iron ore price forecasts by 13% due to an expected delay in the Simandou project. The project is expected to face challenges related to geology and a complex multi-node infrastructure system. Any delay in the project coming online is expected to trigger supply issues in the iron market, likely leading to a significant price spike.

According to the research firm, the expected delay positions Vale as a clear winner, as it is likely to benefit from higher commodity prices. That’s in part because the company boasts of high-grade iron ore products expected to command larger premiums with fewer competing tons coming to market. Iron ore prices are expected to average $100 a ton for the first half of the year before easing to $95 in the second half.

The research firm is also projecting higher valuation multiples for the Brazilian mining giant. RBC Capital expects Vale to supplement its base dividend with special payouts as it expects its yield to more than double to 9%.

Vale S.A. (NYSE:VALE) is a multinational corporation primarily involved in metals and mining, and is a world leader in the production of iron ore and nickel. It’s also extracting copper, manganese, ferroalloys, gold, silver, cobalt, and platinum group metals.

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Disclosure: None. This article is originally published at Insider Monkey.