Upstart Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:UPST) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Sanjay Datta: Hey, Ramsey, it’s Sanjay, again. Yes, I think there’s maybe sort of two factors to call out with respect to our loan balance at the end of the year. One, which is true the prior quarter as well is that we have, as you know, we’ve consolidated a recent ABS deal as a deal from 2023. And that sort of sits as an additional component of our balance sheet. It’s not really anything we have economic basis in — or I guess we have a much smaller economic basis in than the full amount of the consolidation, so that’s one ongoing factor. The other one, which we just alluded to, is that we’ve sort of announced that prior — or sort of after the end of the quarter, subsequent to the end of the quarter, we’ve completed a balance sheet transaction with an institutional funding partner that was on the order of $300 million.

And during Q4, we were aggregating loans in anticipation of that deal closing and so a lot of those loans are now off of our balance sheet. As far as how to think about the go forward, I think you’re right, as we hopefully have more to announce with respect to committed capital deals, those will obviously supplant our balance sheet and take on more of the of the volume. And then separately, we’re always interested in finding sources of liquidity for our existing balance sheet. That’s just really just a function of where pricing and returns are in the market. And so those — I think two things combined will determine to what extent we are able to reduce our balance sheet over the coming quarters.

Ramsey El-Assal: Got it. Okay. And a follow-up for me. I wanted to ask about auto loans. On Slide 23, it looks like the number there declined pretty significantly again quarter-over-quarter. I guess two questions are, when do you expect that to maybe bottom out and begin growing again? And then secondarily, is there a business risk that your auto customers get turned off because your approval rates are quite a bit lower than they were. Is there any kind of ancillary business risk of managing the credit side of the business at this point as you’re trying to build the business? Thanks.

Dave Girouard: Sure. Good question. Let’s just say, obviously, rates have been very high in the auto lending world, both because interest rates are high and because the price of cars is very high. So, I think that’s really contributed to an environment where the volume is down. We are very careful working with a fairly tight group of dealers that we work on lending with. And we’re very aware that we need a certain throughput with each of these dealers. So, it’s something we do manage carefully. We’ve done a lot with our software beyond lending. So, I think there’s a lot of value we are delivering to these dealerships irrespective of the loan volume going through our part of the platform, managing their online parts of their business as well as the in-store process of selling cars. So, there’s a lot more to what we do for dealers than just the loans. So, we feel pretty good about that.

Ramsey El-Assal: Fantastic. Thank you very much.

Operator: And our next question is going to come from Peter Christiansen from Citi. Please go ahead.

Peter Christiansen: Good evening. Thanks for taking my questions. Dave, I just want to follow up on Ramsey’s comments, I think is important. As we think about our forward flow agreements and the innovation that you’re looking to unlock there does having an equity stake in some of these forward flow agreements, is that — should we think of that as par for the course? Is that going to be a regular feature going forward? Or is it the opposite of that over time, you just really want to reduce that balance sheet exposure altogether?

Dave Girouard: Good question. I think we generally think that we’re headed in the direction of having a number of large long-term relationships where there is risk sharing and alignment structured into the process. And we think this is both necessary and important to having that type of relationship and having the capital committed over long periods of time. So, we are exploring different structures to those and some participation in those. But I think this is the nature of what we believe will be important and necessary to have long-term funding partnerships with the types of partners that can really help us rescale this business and get to where we were and far beyond.

Peter Christiansen: Thanks. I appreciate that color. And then just a follow-up, maybe this is for Sanjay. How should — obviously, there’s a lot of forecasts out there, some of them predicting two, three Fed cuts this year, that kind of level. How should we think about the conversion ratio — conversion number kind of being impacted, should we start seeing 25 basis points, 50 basis points, those kind of chunk type of cuts. Is there any way that we — rule of thumb that we should think about, should that happen later this year?

Sanjay Datta: Hey Pete, I mean interest rate reductions would obviously be helpful to conversion. And I think the extent to which it improves conversion is a bit depending on, let’s call it, the premise of the borrower. I think maybe a rough rule of thumb in aggregate could be for a 100 basis point reduction, something on the order of 10% to 15% relative conversion boost, but that will vary by borrower type.